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Lightweight

5 Rounds

Dustin Poirier won · U-DEC R5

Elo1494

Elo1484

Dustin PoiriervsDan HookerUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Hooker · Saturday, June 27, 2020Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Dustin Poirier won

U-DEC · Round 5 · 5:00

Style matchupDustin Poirier: Submission grapplervsDan Hooker: Pressure fighter

The pressure fighter risks getting subbed if they over-commit on the ground.

Model Prediction: Dustin Poirier wins(68.0%)

Actual result: Dustin Poirier wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Dustin Poirier at -225 American odds

+$44 profit

$144 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Stance matchup historically favors Dan Hooker (54.1%).

Tale of the Tape

Dustin Poirier

Red Corner

Dan Hooker

Blue Corner

-225

(69%)

Vegas Odds

+180

(36%)

1494

Elo

1484

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Switch

5'9"

Height

6'0"

182.88 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Dustin PoirierL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Michael Chandler · Nov 22

KOvs Justin Gaethje · Jul 23

KOvs Benoit Saint Denis · Mar 24

SUBvs Islam Makhachev · Jun 24

vs Max Holloway · Jul 25

latest

Dan HookerL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Claudio Puelles · Nov 22

vs Jalin Turner · Jul 23

vs Mateusz Gamrot · Aug 24

SUBvs Arman Tsarukyan · Nov 25

KOvs Benoit Saint Denis · Jan 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Dustin PoirierMetricDan Hooker

5.24

Strikes / min

4.82

4.57

Strikes absorbed / min

4.94

52%

Strike defense

49%

1.15

TDs / 15 min

0.68

64%

Takedown defense

77%

1.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.67evenly matched on net striking-0.12

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Dustin PoirierDan Hooker

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Dustin Poirier(10 fights)Dan Hooker(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +9.7|Blue -9.7

Recent Form

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Striker Score

Red +1.1|Blue -1.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red +168.0|Blue -168.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Dustin PoirierTargetDan Hooker

By target zone

131

64% acc · 86%

Head

55% acc · 63%

83% acc · 13%

Body

68% acc · 23%

100% acc · 1%

Leg

91% acc · 14%

By position

116

62% acc · 76%

Distance

136

59% acc · 88%

91% acc · 13%

Clinch

75% acc · 8%

81% acc · 11%

Ground

88% acc · 5%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Dustin Poirier rounds

even

Dan Hooker rounds

Round 1Dan Hooker edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns0

Control0:12

33Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:09Control

Round 2Dan Hooker edged it

Sig. strikes48

Takedowns0

Control0:52

66Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:18Control

Round 3Even round

Sig. strikes28

Takedowns0

Control0:00

20Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:10Control

Round 4Dustin Poirier edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns1

Control1:02

11Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

2:08Control

Round 5Dustin Poirier edged it

Sig. strikes37

Takedowns0

Control0:43

25Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:17Control

Fight Stats

Totals

153 / 231

Sig Strikes

155 / 253

67.4%

Sig Str %

63.2%

208 / 289

Total Strikes

182 / 283

1 / 7

TDs

4 / 9

50%

TD %

72%

Sub Att

Rev

2:49

Ctrl Time

6:02

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Dan Hooker	33 / 67	35 / 69	0 / 0	0
1	Dustin Poirier	20 / 31	20 / 31	0 / 0	0
2	Dan Hooker	66 / 98	69 / 101	0 / 0	0
2	Dustin Poirier	48 / 83	53 / 88	0 / 6	0
3	Dan Hooker	20 / 39	30 / 51	1 / 1	0
3	Dustin Poirier	28 / 40	38 / 50	0 / 0	1
4	Dustin Poirier	20 / 28	43 / 53	1 / 1	3
4	Dan Hooker	11 / 14	23 / 27	2 / 2	0
5	Dan Hooker	25 / 35	25 / 35	1 / 6	0
5	Dustin Poirier	37 / 49	54 / 67	0 / 0	0

Dustin Poirier

StanceSouthpaw

Height69.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights31

Dan Hooker

StanceSwitch

Height72.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights24