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Lightweight

5 Rounds

Dustin Poirier won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1494

Elo1474

Dustin PoiriervsConor McGregorUFC Prediction Result

UFC 264: Poirier vs. McGregor 3 · Saturday, July 10, 2021Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Dustin Poirier won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 5:00

Style matchupDustin Poirier: Submission grapplervsConor McGregor: Pressure fighter

The pressure fighter risks getting subbed if they over-commit on the ground.

Model Prediction: Conor McGregor wins(50.8%)

Actual result: Dustin Poirier wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Conor McGregor at +100 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Dustin Poirier is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Conor McGregor has lost 60% of fights by KO.

Tale of the Tape

Dustin Poirier

Red Corner

Conor McGregor

Blue Corner

-129

(56%)

Vegas Odds

+100

(50%)

1494

Elo

1474

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Southpaw

5'9"

Height

5'9"

182.88 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Dustin PoirierL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Michael Chandler · Nov 22

KOvs Justin Gaethje · Jul 23

KOvs Benoit Saint Denis · Mar 24

SUBvs Islam Makhachev · Jun 24

vs Max Holloway · Jul 25

latest

Conor McGregorL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Eddie Alvarez · Nov 16

SUBvs Khabib Nurmagomedov · Oct 18

KOvs Donald Cerrone · Jan 20

KOvs Dustin Poirier · Jan 21

KOvs Max Holloway · Jul 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Dustin PoirierMetricConor McGregor

5.24

Strikes / min

5.32

4.57

Strikes absorbed / min

4.66

52%

Strike defense

54%

1.15

TDs / 15 min

0.67

64%

Takedown defense

66%

1.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.67evenly matched on net striking+0.66

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Dustin PoirierConor McGregor

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Dustin Poirier(10 fights)Conor McGregor(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +19.7|Blue -19.7

Recent Form

Red +1.2|Blue -1.2

Striker Score

Red +0.9|Blue -0.9

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Dustin PoirierTargetConor McGregor

By target zone

56% acc · 97%

Head

62% acc · 48%

0% acc

Body

67% acc · 22%

50% acc · 3%

Leg

100% acc · 30%

By position

40% acc · 22%

Distance

65% acc · 63%

Clinch

100% acc · 4%

61% acc · 78%

Ground

82% acc · 33%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Dustin Poirier rounds

even

Conor McGregor rounds

Round 1Dustin Poirier edged it

Sig. strikes36

Takedowns1

Control3:18

27Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

36 / 66

Sig Strikes

27 / 38

54%

Sig Str %

71%

36 / 66

Total Strikes

43 / 54

1 / 2

TDs

0 / 0

50%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

3:18

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Conor McGregor	27 / 38	43 / 54	0 / 0	1
1	Dustin Poirier	36 / 66	36 / 66	1 / 2	0

Dustin Poirier

StanceSouthpaw

Height69.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights31

Conor McGregor

StanceSouthpaw

Height69.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights15