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Lightweight
3 Rounds
Dustin Poirier won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1494
Elo1445

Dustin PoiriervsBobby GreenUFC Prediction Result

UFC 199: Rockhold vs. Bisping 2 · Saturday, June 4, 2016Los Angeles, California, USA

Official fight result

Dustin Poirier won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 2:53

Model Prediction: Bobby Green wins(52.8%)

Actual result: Dustin Poirier wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Bobby Green at +160 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Stance matchup historically favors Dustin Poirier (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Dustin Poirier
Red Corner
VS
Bobby Green
Blue Corner
-185
(65%)
Vegas Odds
+160
(38%)
1494
Elo
1445
37
Age
29
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
5'9"
Height
5'10"
182.88 cm
Reach
180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Dustin PoirierL2 streak
oldest →
W
SUBvs Michael Chandler · Nov 22
L
KOvs Justin Gaethje · Jul 23
W
KOvs Benoit Saint Denis · Mar 24
L
SUBvs Islam Makhachev · Jun 24
L
vs Max Holloway · Jul 25
latest
Bobby GreenL2 streak
oldest →
L
vs Rafael Fiziev · Aug 21
W
KOvs Al Iaquinta · Nov 21
W
vs Nasrat Haqparast · Feb 22
L
KOvs Islam Makhachev · Feb 22
L
KOvs Drew Dober · Dec 22
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Dustin PoirierMetricBobby Green
5.24
Strikes / min
—
4.57
Strikes absorbed / min
—
52%
Strike defense
—
1.15
TDs / 15 min
—
64%
Takedown defense
—
1.20
Sub atts / 15 min
—

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1614 vs 1555Strikes43.4 vs 52.6Takedowns1.1 vs 0.8Sub Atts0.64 vs 0.20Form0.8 vs 0.3
Dustin PoirierBobby Green

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801490150015101520← oldermost recent →
Dustin Poirier(10 fights)Bobby Green(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +48.4|Blue -48.4
Recent Form
Red +0.5|Blue -0.5
Striker Score
Red +0.5|Blue -0.5
Grappler Score
Red +0.0|Blue -0.0
EVEN
Layoff
Red -406.0|Blue +406.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Dustin Poirier

StanceSouthpaw
Height69.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights31

Bobby Green

StanceOrthodox
Height70.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights9