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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Dustin Poirier won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1494

Elo1546

Benoit Saint Denis editorial illustration

Dustin PoiriervsBenoit Saint DenisUFC Prediction Result

UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2 · Saturday, March 9, 2024Miami, Florida, USA

Official fight result

Dustin Poirier won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 2:32

Style matchupDustin Poirier: Submission grapplervsBenoit Saint Denis: Wrestler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Benoit Saint Denis wins(73.6%)

Actual result: Dustin Poirier wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Benoit Saint Denis at -218 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Dustin Poirier enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Dustin Poirier is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Benoit Saint Denis has lost 50% of fights by KO.
Benoit Saint Denis threatens submissions; Dustin Poirier has lost 44% of fights by sub.
Dustin Poirier has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.

Tale of the Tape

Dustin Poirier

Red Corner

Benoit Saint Denis

Blue Corner

+180

(36%)

Vegas Odds

-218

(69%)

1494

Elo

1546

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Southpaw

5'9"

Height

5'11"

182.88 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Dustin PoirierL3 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Charles Oliveira · Dec 21

SUBvs Michael Chandler · Nov 22

KOvs Justin Gaethje · Jul 23

SUBvs Islam Makhachev · Jun 24

vs Max Holloway · Jul 25

latest

Benoit Saint Denis

oldest →

SUBvs Kyle Prepolec · May 25

SUBvs Mauricio Ruffy · Sep 25

KOvs Beneil Dariush · Nov 25

KOvs Dan Hooker · Jan 26

SUBvs Paddy Pimblett · Jul 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Dustin PoirierMetricBenoit Saint Denis

5.24

Strikes / min

5.62

4.57

Strikes absorbed / min

4.09

52%

Strike defense

42%

1.15

TDs / 15 min

4.19

64%

Takedown defense

72%

1.20

Sub atts / 15 min

1.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.67evenly matched on net striking+1.53

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Dustin PoirierBenoit Saint Denis

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Dustin Poirier(10 fights)Benoit Saint Denis(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -52.3|Blue +52.3

Recent Form

Red -1.2|Blue +1.2

Striker Score

Red +1.8|Blue -1.8

Grappler Score

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Layoff

Red +105.0|Blue -105.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Dustin PoirierTargetBenoit Saint Denis

By target zone

80% acc · 86%

Head

54% acc · 50%

100% acc · 11%

Body

90% acc · 36%

100% acc · 4%

Leg

88% acc · 14%

By position

92% acc · 82%

Distance

46% acc · 34%

50% acc · 14%

Clinch

89% acc · 62%

100% acc · 4%

Ground

100% acc · 4%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Dustin Poirier rounds

even

Benoit Saint Denis rounds

Round 1Benoit Saint Denis edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns0

Control0:23

38Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

3:20Control

Round 2Dustin Poirier edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns0

Control0:08

Knockdowns1

12Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:33Control

0Knockdowns

Fight Stats

Totals

28 / 34

Sig Strikes

50 / 74

84%

Sig Str %

62.5%

30 / 37

Total Strikes

69 / 97

0 / 1

TDs

3 / 7

TD %

41.5%

Sub Att

Rev

0:31

Ctrl Time

4:53

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Benoit Saint Denis	38 / 49	53 / 68	2 / 4	1
1	Dustin Poirier	12 / 13	14 / 16	0 / 1	3
2	Benoit Saint Denis	12 / 25	16 / 29	1 / 3	0
2	Dustin Poirier	16 / 21	16 / 21	0 / 0	1

Dustin Poirier

StanceSouthpaw

Height69.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights31

Benoit Saint Denis

StanceSouthpaw

Height71.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights13