Lightweight

5 Rounds

Dustin Poirier won · KO/TKO R3

Elo1494

Elo1493

Dustin PoiriervsAnthony PettisUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Pettis · Saturday, November 11, 2017Norfolk, Virginia, USA

Official fight result

Dustin Poirier won

KO/TKO · Round 3 · 2:08

Style matchupDustin Poirier: Submission grapplervsAnthony Pettis: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters can dictate where this happens. The grappler needs scrambles to find their entries.

Model Prediction: Dustin Poirier wins(58.5%)

Actual result: Dustin Poirier wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Dustin Poirier at -110 American odds

+$91 profit

$191 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Stance matchup historically favors Dustin Poirier (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Dustin Poirier

Red Corner

Anthony Pettis

Blue Corner

-110

(52%)

Vegas Odds

-110

(52%)

1494

Elo

1493

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

5'10"

182.88 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Dustin PoirierL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Michael Chandler · Nov 22

KOvs Justin Gaethje · Jul 23

KOvs Benoit Saint Denis · Mar 24

SUBvs Islam Makhachev · Jun 24

vs Max Holloway · Jul 25

latest

Anthony PettisW2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Stephen Thompson · Mar 19

vs Nate Diaz · Aug 19

SUBvs Diego Ferreira · Jan 20

vs Donald Cerrone · May 20

vs Alex Morono · Dec 20

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Dustin PoirierMetricAnthony Pettis

5.24

Strikes / min

3.05

4.57

Strikes absorbed / min

3.44

52%

Strike defense

54%

1.15

TDs / 15 min

0.61

64%

Takedown defense

60%

1.20

Sub atts / 15 min

1.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.67Δ 1.06 — meaningful gap-0.39

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Dustin PoirierAnthony Pettis

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Dustin Poirier(10 fights)Anthony Pettis(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +0.7|Blue -0.7

Recent Form

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Striker Score

Red +1.7|Blue -1.7

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +147.0|Blue -147.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Dustin PoirierTargetAnthony Pettis

By target zone

51% acc · 89%

Head

64% acc · 85%

83% acc · 9%

Body

43% acc · 9%

50% acc · 2%

Leg

100% acc · 6%

By position

40% acc · 47%

Distance

53% acc · 68%

80% acc · 15%

Clinch

100% acc · 3%

71% acc · 38%

Ground

100% acc · 29%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Dustin Poirier rounds

even

Anthony Pettis rounds

Round 1Dustin Poirier edged it

Sig. strikes33

Takedowns1

Control1:50

18Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:34Control

Round 2Dustin Poirier edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns3

Control3:23

15Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:01Control

Round 3Dustin Poirier edged it

Sig. strikes1

Takedowns1

Control1:36

1Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

53 / 100

Sig Strikes

34 / 54

43%

Sig Str %

59.3%

71 / 119

Total Strikes

46 / 66

5 / 6

TDs

1 / 1

83.3%

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

6:49

Ctrl Time

1:35

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Anthony Pettis	18 / 30	21 / 33	0 / 0	1
1	Dustin Poirier	33 / 63	39 / 70	1 / 2	0
2	Anthony Pettis	15 / 22	23 / 30	1 / 1	2
2	Dustin Poirier	19 / 31	29 / 41	3 / 3	0
3	Anthony Pettis	1 / 2	2 / 3	0 / 0	1
3	Dustin Poirier	1 / 6	3 / 8	1 / 1	0

Dustin Poirier

StanceSouthpaw

Height69.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights31

Anthony Pettis

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights20