Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Kyoji Horiguchi won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1353

Elo1514

Dustin PaguevsKyoji HoriguchiUFC Prediction Result

UFC 166: Velasquez vs Dos Santos 3 · Saturday, October 19, 2013Houston, Texas, USA

Official fight result

Kyoji Horiguchi won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 3:51

Style matchupDustin Pague: Submission grapplervsKyoji Horiguchi: Elusive striker

The grappler must close distance and chain wrestling. The elusive striker keeps space and picks shots.

Model Prediction: Dustin Pague wins(64.2%)

Actual result: Kyoji Horiguchi wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Dustin Pague at +135 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Dustin Pague enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Dustin Pague threatens submissions; Kyoji Horiguchi has lost 50% of fights by sub.
Kyoji Horiguchi has 22pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Dustin Pague has a 28cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Dustin Pague

Red Corner

Kyoji Horiguchi

Blue Corner

+135

(43%)

Vegas Odds

-145

(59%)

1353

Elo

1514

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

5'4"

187.96 cm

Reach

160.02 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Dustin PagueL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs John Albert · Dec 11

SUBvs Jared Papazian · Jun 12

vs Ken Stone · Jun 12

vs Chico Camus · Aug 12

vs Yves Jabouin · Jun 13

latest

Kyoji Horiguchi

oldest →

vs Neil Seery · May 16

vs Ali Bagautinov · Nov 16

SUBvs Tagir Ulanbekov · Nov 25

vs Amir Albazi · Feb 26

KOvs Manel Kape · Jun 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Dustin PagueMetricKyoji Horiguchi

1.65

Strikes / min

3.77

2.96

Strikes absorbed / min

2.13

41%

Strike defense

63%

1.03

TDs / 15 min

1.61

55%

Takedown defense

61%

2.60

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.31Δ 2.95 — meaningful gap+1.64

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Dustin PagueKyoji Horiguchi

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Dustin Pague(6 fights)Kyoji Horiguchi(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -161.8|Blue +161.8

Recent Form

Red -0.7|Blue +0.7

Striker Score

Red -49.3|Blue +49.3

Grappler Score

Red -49.8|Blue +49.8

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Dustin PagueTargetKyoji Horiguchi

By target zone

45% acc · 56%

Head

56% acc · 80%

100% acc · 33%

Body

50% acc · 3%

100% acc · 11%

Leg

100% acc · 17%

By position

29% acc · 22%

Distance

71% acc · 33%

83% acc · 56%

Clinch

100% acc · 7%

100% acc · 22%

Ground

53% acc · 60%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Dustin Pague rounds

even

Kyoji Horiguchi rounds

Round 1Dustin Pague edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns1

Control3:07

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:41Control

Round 2Kyoji Horiguchi edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns0

Control0:22

Knockdowns0

23Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

3:11Control

1Knockdowns

Fight Stats

Totals

9 / 15

Sig Strikes

30 / 50

59.5%

Sig Str %

63.5%

18 / 24

Total Strikes

74 / 98

1 / 1

TDs

1 / 3

100%

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

3:29

Ctrl Time

3:52

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Kyoji Horiguchi	7 / 10	10 / 13	0 / 2	0
1	Dustin Pague	5 / 8	14 / 17	1 / 1	1
2	Kyoji Horiguchi	23 / 40	64 / 85	1 / 1	0
2	Dustin Pague	4 / 7	4 / 7	0 / 0	0

Dustin Pague

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights6

Kyoji Horiguchi

StanceOrthodox

Height64.0"

Reach63.0"

Fights11