Bantamweight

3 Rounds

John Albert won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1353

Elo1352

Dustin PaguevsJohn AlbertUFC Prediction Result

The Ultimate Fighter: Team Bisping vs Team Miller Finale · Saturday, December 3, 2011Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

John Albert won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 1:09

Model Prediction: Dustin Pague wins(54.4%)

Actual result: John Albert wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Dustin Pague at -225 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Dustin Pague enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
John Albert enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Dustin Pague threatens submissions; John Albert has lost 100% of fights by sub.
Dustin Pague has a 15cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Dustin Pague

Red Corner

John Albert

Blue Corner

-225

(69%)

Vegas Odds

+205

(33%)

1353

Elo

1352

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

5'8"

187.96 cm

Reach

172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Dustin PagueL4 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Jared Papazian · Jun 12

vs Ken Stone · Jun 12

vs Chico Camus · Aug 12

vs Yves Jabouin · Jun 13

KOvs Kyoji Horiguchi · Oct 13

latest

John AlbertL4 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Ivan Menjivar · Feb 12

SUBvs Erik Perez · Jun 12

SUBvs Scott Jorgensen · Dec 12

SUBvs Yaotzin Meza · Jul 13

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Dustin PagueMetricJohn Albert

1.65

Strikes / min

3.05

2.96

Strikes absorbed / min

2.82

41%

Strike defense

35%

1.03

TDs / 15 min

0.00

55%

Takedown defense

50%

2.60

Sub atts / 15 min

6.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.31Δ 1.54 — meaningful gap+0.23

Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Dustin Pague(6 fights)John Albert(5 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Dustin PagueTargetJohn Albert

By target zone

14% acc · 33%

Head

66% acc · 90%

50% acc · 33%

Body

25% acc · 5%

100% acc · 33%

Leg

100% acc · 5%

By position

30% acc · 100%

Distance

41% acc · 33%

Clinch

Ground

82% acc · 67%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Dustin Pague rounds

even

John Albert rounds

Round 1John Albert edged it

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

21Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:47Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

3 / 10

Sig Strikes

21 / 34

30%

Sig Str %

61%

3 / 10

Total Strikes

36 / 49

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:47

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	John Albert	21 / 34	36 / 49	0 / 0	0
1	Dustin Pague	3 / 10	3 / 10	0 / 0	0

Dustin Pague

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights6

John Albert

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights5