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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Dustin Pague won · SUB R1

Elo1353

Elo1352

Dustin PaguevsJared PapazianUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FX: Johnson vs McCall · Friday, June 8, 2012Sunrise, Florida, USA

Official fight result

Dustin Pague won

SUB · Round 1 · 3:21

Style matchupDustin Pague: Submission grapplervsJared Papazian: Striker

Striker must keep this standing. Grappler wins big if it hits the floor.

Model Prediction: Jared Papazian wins(69.2%)

Actual result: Dustin Pague wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jared Papazian at -160 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Dustin Pague enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Dustin Pague threatens submissions; Jared Papazian has lost 33% of fights by sub.
Striker vs grappler stylistic clash — fight location (standing vs ground) typically decides it.
Stance matchup historically favors Jared Papazian (53.5%).
Dustin Pague has a 18cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Dustin Pague

Red Corner

Jared Papazian

Blue Corner

+150

(40%)

Vegas Odds

-160

(62%)

1353

Elo

1352

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'9"

Height

5'8"

187.96 cm

Reach

170.18 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Dustin PagueL5 streak

oldest →

KOvs John Albert · Dec 11

vs Ken Stone · Jun 12

vs Chico Camus · Aug 12

vs Yves Jabouin · Jun 13

KOvs Kyoji Horiguchi · Oct 13

latest

Jared PapazianL2 streak

oldest →

vs Mike Easton · Jan 12

vs Tim Elliott · Dec 12

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Dustin PagueMetricJared Papazian

1.65

Strikes / min

3.33

2.96

Strikes absorbed / min

3.81

41%

Strike defense

44%

1.03

TDs / 15 min

0.00

55%

Takedown defense

50%

2.60

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.31evenly matched on net striking-0.48

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Dustin PagueJared Papazian

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Dustin Pague(6 fights)Jared Papazian(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +0.7|Blue -0.7

Recent Form

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red +48.0|Blue -48.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Dustin PagueTargetJared Papazian

By target zone

50% acc · 33%

Head

38% acc · 86%

50% acc · 17%

Body

100% acc · 14%

100% acc · 50%

Leg

By position

67% acc · 67%

Distance

43% acc · 86%

50% acc · 17%

Clinch

33% acc · 14%

100% acc · 17%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Dustin Pague rounds

even

Jared Papazian rounds

Round 1Dustin Pague edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns1

Control2:35

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

6 / 9

Sig Strikes

7 / 17

66%

Sig Str %

41%

9 / 12

Total Strikes

12 / 22

1 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

100%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

2:35

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Jared Papazian	7 / 17	12 / 22	0 / 0	0
1	Dustin Pague	6 / 9	9 / 12	1 / 1	1

Dustin Pague

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights6

Jared Papazian

StanceSouthpaw

Height68.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights3