Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Chico Camus won · U-DEC R3

Elo1353

Elo1355

Dustin PaguevsChico CamusUFC Prediction Result

UFC 150: Henderson vs Edgar II · Saturday, August 11, 2012Denver, Colorado, USA

Official fight result

Chico Camus won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupDustin Pague: Submission grapplervsChico Camus: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters can dictate where this happens. The grappler needs scrambles to find their entries.

Model Prediction: Dustin Pague wins(61.8%)

Actual result: Chico Camus wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Dustin Pague at -155 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Dustin Pague enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Chico Camus has 23pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Chico Camus has 17pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Dustin Pague has a 20cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Dustin Pague

Red Corner

Chico Camus

Blue Corner

-155

(61%)

Vegas Odds

+145

(41%)

1353

Elo

1355

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

5'6"

187.96 cm

Reach

167.64 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Dustin PagueL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs John Albert · Dec 11

SUBvs Jared Papazian · Jun 12

vs Ken Stone · Jun 12

vs Yves Jabouin · Jun 13

KOvs Kyoji Horiguchi · Oct 13

latest

Chico CamusL2 streak

oldest →

vs Kyung Ho Kang · Aug 13

vs Chris Holdsworth · May 14

vs Brad Pickett · Nov 14

vs Henry Cejudo · Jun 15

vs Kyoji Horiguchi · Sep 15

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Dustin PagueMetricChico Camus

1.65

Strikes / min

2.58

2.96

Strikes absorbed / min

2.46

41%

Strike defense

64%

1.03

TDs / 15 min

0.77

55%

Takedown defense

72%

2.60

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.31Δ 1.43 — meaningful gap+0.12

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Dustin PagueChico Camus

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Dustin Pague(6 fights)Chico Camus(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -2.8|Blue +2.8

Recent Form

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Striker Score

Red -49.7|Blue +49.7

Grappler Score

Red -49.8|Blue +49.8

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Dustin PagueTargetChico Camus

By target zone

62% acc · 95%

Head

67% acc · 81%

50% acc · 5%

Body

100% acc · 9%

0% acc

Leg

100% acc · 9%

By position

41% acc · 32%

Distance

73% acc · 25%

Clinch

100% acc · 3%

75% acc · 68%

Ground

70% acc · 72%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Dustin Pague rounds

even

Chico Camus rounds

Round 1Chico Camus edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns0

Control0:00

7Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

4:06Control

Round 2Chico Camus edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns1

Control0:24

14Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

3:47Control

Round 3Chico Camus edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns0

Control1:52

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

3:01Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

22 / 37

Sig Strikes

32 / 45

67.3%

Sig Str %

70.3%

35 / 54

Total Strikes

86 / 109

1 / 2

TDs

2 / 2

50%

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

2:16

Ctrl Time

10:54

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Chico Camus	7 / 11	29 / 37	1 / 1	0
1	Dustin Pague	14 / 24	17 / 27	0 / 0	1
2	Chico Camus	14 / 20	34 / 43	1 / 1	0
2	Dustin Pague	4 / 9	9 / 14	1 / 1	0
3	Chico Camus	11 / 14	23 / 29	0 / 0	1
3	Dustin Pague	4 / 4	9 / 13	0 / 1	0

Dustin Pague

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights6

Chico Camus

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach66.0"

Fights7