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Flyweight

3 Rounds

Wilson Reis won · U-DEC R3

Elo1491

Elo1491

Dustin OrtizvsWilson ReisUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Bader · Saturday, January 30, 2016Newark, New Jersey, USA

Official fight result

Wilson Reis won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupDustin Ortiz: WrestlervsWilson Reis: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Dustin Ortiz wins(67.6%)

Actual result: Wilson Reis wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Dustin Ortiz at -275 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Stance matchup historically favors Wilson Reis (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Dustin Ortiz

Red Corner

Wilson Reis

Blue Corner

-275

(73%)

Vegas Odds

+235

(30%)

1491

Elo

1491

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'5"

Height

5'4"

165.1 cm

Reach

165.1 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Dustin Ortiz

oldest →

SUBvs Brandon Moreno · Apr 17

KOvs Hector Sandoval · Aug 17

vs Alexandre Pantoja · Jan 18

KOvs Matheus Nicolau · Jul 18

vs Joseph Benavidez · Jan 19

latest

Wilson Reis

oldest →

SUBvs Demetrious Johnson · Apr 17

KOvs Henry Cejudo · Sep 17

vs John Moraga · Apr 18

vs Ben Nguyen · Dec 18

KOvs Alexandre Pantoja · Apr 19

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Dustin OrtizMetricWilson Reis

2.94

Strikes / min

1.83

2.17

Strikes absorbed / min

3.04

56%

Strike defense

55%

3.01

TDs / 15 min

5.15

52%

Takedown defense

47%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.77Δ 1.98 — meaningful gap-1.21

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Dustin OrtizWilson Reis

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Dustin Ortiz(10 fights)Wilson Reis(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Recent Form

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Striker Score

Red +1.1|Blue -1.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Layoff

Red -70.0|Blue +70.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Dustin OrtizTargetWilson Reis

By target zone

28% acc · 69%

Head

32% acc · 75%

76% acc · 29%

Body

100% acc · 15%

50% acc · 2%

Leg

71% acc · 10%

By position

29% acc · 71%

Distance

29% acc · 58%

65% acc · 24%

Clinch

63% acc · 21%

67% acc · 4%

Ground

77% acc · 21%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Dustin Ortiz rounds

even

Wilson Reis rounds

Round 1Wilson Reis edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns0

Control0:04

12Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

0:52Control

Round 2Wilson Reis edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns0

Control0:07

19Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:20Control

Round 3Wilson Reis edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns1

Control0:04

17Sig. strikes

6Takedowns

3:37Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

45 / 130

Sig Strikes

48 / 125

34%

Sig Str %

38.7%

64 / 152

Total Strikes

96 / 186

1 / 6

TDs

9 / 23

33.3%

TD %

35.7%

Sub Att

Rev

0:15

Ctrl Time

6:49

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Wilson Reis	12 / 45	19 / 52	2 / 6
1	Dustin Ortiz	16 / 50	22 / 56	0 / 2
2	Wilson Reis	19 / 44	33 / 63	1 / 7
2	Dustin Ortiz	19 / 46	30 / 59	0 / 3
3	Wilson Reis	17 / 36	44 / 71	6 / 10
3	Dustin Ortiz	10 / 34	12 / 37	1 / 1

Dustin Ortiz

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach65.0"

Fights14

Wilson Reis

StanceSouthpaw

Height64.0"

Reach65.0"

Fights13