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Flyweight

3 Rounds

Dustin Ortiz won · S-DEC R3

Elo1491

Elo1492

Dustin OrtizvsRay BorgUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FOX: Werdum vs Browne · Saturday, April 19, 2014Orlando, Florida, USA

Official fight result

Dustin Ortiz won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupDustin Ortiz: WrestlervsRay Borg: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Dustin Ortiz wins(75.8%)

Actual result: Dustin Ortiz wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Dustin Ortiz at -155 American odds

+$65 profit

$165 total returned

Tale of the Tape

Dustin Ortiz

Red Corner

Ray Borg

Blue Corner

-155

(61%)

Vegas Odds

+145

(41%)

1491

Elo

1492

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'5"

Height

5'4"

165.1 cm

Reach

160.02 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Dustin Ortiz

oldest →

SUBvs Brandon Moreno · Apr 17

KOvs Hector Sandoval · Aug 17

vs Alexandre Pantoja · Jan 18

KOvs Matheus Nicolau · Jul 18

vs Joseph Benavidez · Jan 19

latest

Ray Borg

oldest →

SUBvs Demetrious Johnson · Oct 17

vs Casey Kenney · Mar 19

vs Gabriel Silva · Jul 19

vs Rogerio Bontorin · Feb 20

vs Ricky Simon · May 20

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Dustin OrtizMetricRay Borg

2.94

Strikes / min

1.52

2.17

Strikes absorbed / min

1.93

56%

Strike defense

48%

3.01

TDs / 15 min

3.89

52%

Takedown defense

46%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

1.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.77Δ 1.18 — meaningful gap-0.41

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Dustin OrtizRay Borg

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Dustin Ortiz(10 fights)Ray Borg(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -0.9|Blue +0.9

Recent Form

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Striker Score

Red -48.1|Blue +48.1

Grappler Score

Red -49.6|Blue +49.6

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Dustin OrtizTargetRay Borg

By target zone

33% acc · 30%

Head

43% acc · 75%

85% acc · 61%

Body

60% acc · 25%

100% acc · 9%

Leg

0% acc

By position

31% acc · 26%

Distance

36% acc · 42%

81% acc · 48%

Clinch

29% acc · 17%

86% acc · 26%

Ground

83% acc · 42%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Dustin Ortiz rounds

even

Ray Borg rounds

Round 1Dustin Ortiz edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns1

Control2:41

2Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

2:04Control

Round 2Dustin Ortiz edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns1

Control1:37

5Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:48Control

Round 3Dustin Ortiz edged it

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns0

Control1:06

5Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

1:07Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

46 / 80

Sig Strikes

12 / 27

63.7%

Sig Str %

48.3%

107 / 144

Total Strikes

21 / 37

2 / 4

TDs

5 / 8

50%

TD %

66.7%

Sub Att

Rev

5:24

Ctrl Time

5:59

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Ray Borg	2 / 4	7 / 9	2 / 2	0
1	Dustin Ortiz	15 / 17	49 / 51	1 / 2	0
2	Ray Borg	5 / 8	8 / 12	1 / 2	2
2	Dustin Ortiz	10 / 17	17 / 26	1 / 1	0
3	Ray Borg	5 / 15	6 / 16	2 / 4	0
3	Dustin Ortiz	21 / 46	41 / 67	0 / 1	0

Dustin Ortiz

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach65.0"

Fights14

Ray Borg

StanceOrthodox

Height64.0"

Reach63.0"

Fights12