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Flyweight

3 Rounds

Dustin Ortiz won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1491

Dustin OrtizvsHector SandovalUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Pettis vs. Moreno · Saturday, August 5, 2017Mexico City, Distrito Federal, Mexico

Official fight result

Dustin Ortiz won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 0:15

Style matchupDustin Ortiz: WrestlervsHector Sandoval: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Hector Sandoval wins(55.6%)

Actual result: Dustin Ortiz wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Hector Sandoval at +155 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Dustin Ortiz is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Hector Sandoval has lost 50% of fights by KO.
Hector Sandoval has 19pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Dustin Ortiz

Red Corner

Hector Sandoval

Blue Corner

-175

(64%)

Vegas Odds

+155

(39%)

1491

Elo

1491

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'5"

Height

5'2"

165.1 cm

Reach

162.56 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Dustin Ortiz

oldest →

vs Zach Makovsky · Dec 16

SUBvs Brandon Moreno · Apr 17

vs Alexandre Pantoja · Jan 18

KOvs Matheus Nicolau · Jul 18

vs Joseph Benavidez · Jan 19

latest

Hector SandovalW2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Wilson Reis · Jul 16

vs Fredy Serrano · Dec 16

KOvs Matt Schnell · Apr 17

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Dustin OrtizMetricHector Sandoval

2.94

Strikes / min

3.31

2.17

Strikes absorbed / min

2.33

56%

Strike defense

65%

3.01

TDs / 15 min

3.49

52%

Takedown defense

71%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

1.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.77evenly matched on net striking+0.98

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Dustin OrtizHector Sandoval

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Dustin Ortiz(10 fights)Hector Sandoval(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +0.7|Blue -0.7

Recent Form

Red -0.9|Blue +0.9

Striker Score

Red +2.1|Blue -2.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Dustin OrtizTargetHector Sandoval

By target zone

78% acc · 88%

Head

17% acc · 100%

100% acc · 13%

Body

Leg

By position

67% acc · 50%

Distance

17% acc · 100%

Clinch

100% acc · 50%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Dustin Ortiz rounds

even

Hector Sandoval rounds

Round 1Dustin Ortiz edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns0

Control0:02

Knockdowns1

1Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

8 / 10

Sig Strikes

1 / 6

80%

Sig Str %

16%

8 / 10

Total Strikes

1 / 6

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:02

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Hector Sandoval	1 / 6	1 / 6	0 / 0	0
1	Dustin Ortiz	8 / 10	8 / 10	0 / 0	0

Dustin Ortiz

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach65.0"

Fights14

Hector Sandoval

StanceOrthodox

Height62.0"

Reach64.0"

Fights4