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Flyweight

3 Rounds

Brandon Moreno won · SUB R2

Elo1491

Elo1487

Dustin OrtizvsBrandon MorenoUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Lobov · Saturday, April 22, 2017Nashville, Tennessee, USA

Official fight result

Brandon Moreno won

SUB · Round 2 · 4:06

Style matchupDustin Ortiz: WrestlervsBrandon Moreno: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Brandon Moreno wins(54.2%)

Actual result: Brandon Moreno wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Brandon Moreno at +100 American odds

+$100 profit

$200 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Brandon Moreno has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Dustin Ortiz

Red Corner

Brandon Moreno

Blue Corner

-120

(55%)

Vegas Odds

+100

(50%)

1491

Elo

1487

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'5"

Height

5'7"

165.1 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Dustin Ortiz

oldest →

vs Zach Makovsky · Dec 16

KOvs Hector Sandoval · Aug 17

vs Alexandre Pantoja · Jan 18

KOvs Matheus Nicolau · Jul 18

vs Joseph Benavidez · Jan 19

latest

Brandon MorenoL2 streak

oldest →

vs Brandon Royval · Feb 24

vs Amir Albazi · Nov 24

vs Steve Erceg · Mar 25

KOvs Tatsuro Taira · Dec 25

vs Lone'er Kavanagh · Feb 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Dustin OrtizMetricBrandon Moreno

2.94

Strikes / min

3.84

2.17

Strikes absorbed / min

3.64

56%

Strike defense

59%

3.01

TDs / 15 min

1.36

52%

Takedown defense

65%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.77evenly matched on net striking+0.20

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Dustin OrtizBrandon Moreno

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Dustin Ortiz(10 fights)Brandon Moreno(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +4.9|Blue -4.9

Recent Form

Red -1.0|Blue +1.0

Striker Score

Red +2.2|Blue -2.2

Grappler Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Layoff

Red -7.0|Blue +7.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Dustin OrtizTargetBrandon Moreno

By target zone

7% acc · 19%

Head

23% acc · 58%

40% acc · 13%

Body

71% acc · 21%

79% acc · 69%

Leg

83% acc · 21%

By position

20% acc · 63%

Distance

22% acc · 50%

50% acc · 25%

Clinch

83% acc · 21%

100% acc · 13%

Ground

54% acc · 29%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Dustin Ortiz rounds

even

Brandon Moreno rounds

Round 1Dustin Ortiz edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns3

Control4:03

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:20Control

Round 2Brandon Moreno edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns1

Control0:44

Knockdowns0

17Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:22Control

1Knockdowns

Fight Stats

Totals

16 / 60

Sig Strikes

24 / 73

29.5%

Sig Str %

37.5%

31 / 76

Total Strikes

34 / 86

4 / 10

TDs

0 / 0

66.5%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

4:47

Ctrl Time

1:42

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Brandon Moreno	7 / 15	13 / 22	0 / 0	1
1	Dustin Ortiz	6 / 16	21 / 32	3 / 9	0
2	Brandon Moreno	17 / 58	21 / 64	0 / 0	1
2	Dustin Ortiz	10 / 44	10 / 44	1 / 1	0

Dustin Ortiz

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach65.0"

Fights14

Brandon Moreno

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights18