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Flyweight

3 Rounds

Dustin Ortiz won · U-DEC R3

Elo1491

Elo1523

Dustin OrtizvsAlexandre PantojaUFC Prediction Result

UFC 220: Miocic vs. Ngannou · Saturday, January 20, 2018Boston, Massachusetts, USA

Official fight result

Dustin Ortiz won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupDustin Ortiz: WrestlervsAlexandre Pantoja: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Alexandre Pantoja wins(67.5%)

Actual result: Dustin Ortiz wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Alexandre Pantoja at +115 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Alexandre Pantoja has 17pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Dustin Ortiz

Red Corner

Alexandre Pantoja

Blue Corner

-135

(57%)

Vegas Odds

+115

(47%)

1491

Elo

1523

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'5"

Height

5'5"

165.1 cm

Reach

170.18 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Dustin Ortiz

oldest →

vs Zach Makovsky · Dec 16

SUBvs Brandon Moreno · Apr 17

KOvs Hector Sandoval · Aug 17

KOvs Matheus Nicolau · Jul 18

vs Joseph Benavidez · Jan 19

latest

Alexandre Pantoja

oldest →

vs Brandon Royval · Dec 23

vs Steve Erceg · May 24

SUBvs Kai Asakura · Dec 24

SUBvs Kai Kara-France · Jun 25

KOvs Joshua Van · Dec 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Dustin OrtizMetricAlexandre Pantoja

2.94

Strikes / min

4.38

2.17

Strikes absorbed / min

3.88

56%

Strike defense

49%

3.01

TDs / 15 min

2.79

52%

Takedown defense

69%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

1.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.77evenly matched on net striking+0.50

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Dustin OrtizAlexandre Pantoja

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Dustin Ortiz(10 fights)Alexandre Pantoja(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -31.4|Blue +31.4

Recent Form

Red -0.9|Blue +0.9

Striker Score

Red +1.5|Blue -1.5

Grappler Score

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red -20.0|Blue +20.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Dustin OrtizTargetAlexandre Pantoja

By target zone

32% acc · 53%

Head

32% acc · 68%

80% acc · 22%

Body

80% acc · 21%

82% acc · 25%

Leg

67% acc · 11%

By position

35% acc · 58%

Distance

34% acc · 79%

75% acc · 17%

Clinch

50% acc · 5%

75% acc · 25%

Ground

100% acc · 16%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Dustin Ortiz rounds

even

Alexandre Pantoja rounds

Round 1Alexandre Pantoja edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns1

Control0:42

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

3:54Control

Round 2Dustin Ortiz edged it

Sig. strikes23

Takedowns4

Control2:41

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:20Control

Round 3Dustin Ortiz edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns2

Control1:28

2Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

3:04Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

36 / 80

Sig Strikes

19 / 49

42%

Sig Str %

43.7%

92 / 147

Total Strikes

49 / 79

7 / 12

TDs

1 / 1

72%

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

4:51

Ctrl Time

7:18

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Alexandre Pantoja	6 / 9	28 / 31	0 / 0	2
1	Dustin Ortiz	2 / 9	20 / 32	1 / 1	0
2	Alexandre Pantoja	11 / 34	16 / 39	0 / 0	0
2	Dustin Ortiz	23 / 53	32 / 62	4 / 8	0
3	Alexandre Pantoja	2 / 6	5 / 9	1 / 1	0
3	Dustin Ortiz	11 / 18	40 / 53	2 / 3	0

Dustin Ortiz

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach65.0"

Fights14

Alexandre Pantoja

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights18