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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Dustin Kimura won · SUB R1

Elo1354

Elo1490

Dustin KimuravsJon Delos ReyesUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Saffiedine vs Lim · Saturday, January 4, 2014Singapore, Singapore

Official fight result

Dustin Kimura won

SUB · Round 1 · 2:13

Style matchupDustin Kimura: Submission grapplervsJon Delos Reyes: Wrestler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Dustin Kimura wins(75.9%)

Actual result: Dustin Kimura wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Dustin Kimura at -360 American odds

+$28 profit

$128 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Dustin Kimura enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Dustin Kimura threatens submissions; Jon Delos Reyes has lost 67% of fights by sub.
Jon Delos Reyes threatens submissions; Dustin Kimura has lost 33% of fights by sub.
Dustin Kimura has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Dustin Kimura

Red Corner

Jon Delos Reyes

Blue Corner

-360

(78%)

Vegas Odds

+325

(24%)

1354

Elo

1490

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'7"

Height

5'6"

180.34 cm

Reach

170.18 cm

Recent Form

Last 4 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Dustin KimuraL3 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Chico Camus · Feb 13

SUBvs Mitch Gagnon · Sep 13

vs George Roop · Apr 14

vs Henry Cejudo · Dec 14

latest

Jon Delos Reyes

oldest →

KOvs Kyoji Horiguchi · Sep 14

SUBvs Roldan Sangcha-an · May 15

SUBvs Neil Seery · Oct 15

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Dustin KimuraMetricJon Delos Reyes

1.33

Strikes / min

2.99

3.82

Strikes absorbed / min

4.14

51%

Strike defense

51%

0.93

TDs / 15 min

3.20

50%

Takedown defense

55%

2.20

Sub atts / 15 min

1.90

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-2.49Δ 1.34 — meaningful gap-1.15

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Dustin KimuraJon Delos Reyes

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Dustin Kimura(5 fights)Jon Delos Reyes(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -136.5|Blue +136.5

Recent Form

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Striker Score

Red -49.4|Blue +49.4

Grappler Score

Red -49.5|Blue +49.5

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Dustin KimuraTargetJon Delos Reyes

By target zone

13% acc · 100%

Head

32% acc · 100%

Body

0% acc

Leg

0% acc

By position

11% acc · 100%

Distance

36% acc · 44%

Clinch

50% acc · 22%

Ground

21% acc · 33%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Dustin Kimura rounds

even

Jon Delos Reyes rounds

Round 1Jon Delos Reyes edged it

Sig. strikes1

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

9Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:34Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

1 / 9

Sig Strikes

9 / 29

11%

Sig Str %

31%

1 / 9

Total Strikes

10 / 32

0 / 1

TDs

1 / 1

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

1:34

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Jon Delos Reyes	9 / 29	10 / 32	1 / 1	0
1	Dustin Kimura	1 / 9	1 / 9	0 / 1	1

Dustin Kimura

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights5

Jon Delos Reyes

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights4