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Light Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Dustin Jacoby won · U-DEC R3

Elo1515

Elo1508

Michal Oleksiejczuk editorial illustration

Dustin JacobyvsMichal OleksiejczukUFC Prediction Result

UFC 272: Covington vs. Masvidal · Saturday, March 5, 2022Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Dustin Jacoby won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupDustin Jacoby: Pressure fightervsMichal Oleksiejczuk: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Michal Oleksiejczuk wins(58.3%)

Actual result: Dustin Jacoby wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Michal Oleksiejczuk at +165 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Stance matchup historically favors Michal Oleksiejczuk (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Dustin Jacoby

Red Corner

Michal Oleksiejczuk

Blue Corner

-195

(66%)

Vegas Odds

+165

(38%)

1515

Elo

1508

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

6'3"

Height

6'0"

193.04 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Dustin Jacoby

oldest →

KOvs Dominick Reyes · Jun 24

KOvs Vitor Petrino · Dec 24

KOvs Bruno Lopes · May 25

KOvs Julius Walker · Feb 26

KOvs Muhammad Saidov · Jul 26

latest

Michal Oleksiejczuk

oldest →

vs Shara Magomedov · Aug 24

KOvs Sedriques Dumas · Apr 25

KOvs Gerald Meerschaert · Aug 25

vs Marc-Andre Barriault · Feb 26

SUBvs Abus Magomedov · Jun 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Dustin JacobyMetricMichal Oleksiejczuk

5.40

Strikes / min

5.85

3.92

Strikes absorbed / min

4.50

57%

Strike defense

59%

0.32

TDs / 15 min

1.02

62%

Takedown defense

52%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.48evenly matched on net striking+1.35

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Dustin JacobyMichal Oleksiejczuk

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Dustin Jacoby(10 fights)Michal Oleksiejczuk(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +7.2|Blue -7.2

Recent Form

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Striker Score

Red -1.2|Blue +1.2

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red -7.0|Blue +7.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Dustin JacobyTargetMichal Oleksiejczuk

By target zone

33% acc · 83%

Head

37% acc · 86%

68% acc · 15%

Body

77% acc · 14%

100% acc · 2%

Leg

By position

33% acc · 79%

Distance

39% acc · 96%

64% acc · 20%

Clinch

100% acc · 4%

100% acc · 1%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Dustin Jacoby rounds

even

Michal Oleksiejczuk rounds

Round 1Michal Oleksiejczuk edged it

Sig. strikes22

Takedowns0

Control0:12

27Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:06Control

Round 2Dustin Jacoby edged it

Sig. strikes36

Takedowns1

Control1:14

24Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:11Control

Round 3Dustin Jacoby edged it

Sig. strikes31

Takedowns0

Control1:44

18Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

89 / 243

Sig Strikes

69 / 173

36.3%

Sig Str %

40%

107 / 269

Total Strikes

72 / 176

1 / 2

TDs

1 / 2

50%

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

3:10

Ctrl Time

0:17

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Michal Oleksiejczuk	27 / 71	27 / 71	1 / 1
1	Dustin Jacoby	22 / 80	25 / 84	0 / 1
2	Michal Oleksiejczuk	24 / 52	25 / 53	0 / 0
2	Dustin Jacoby	36 / 80	39 / 83	1 / 1
3	Michal Oleksiejczuk	18 / 50	20 / 52	0 / 1
3	Dustin Jacoby	31 / 83	43 / 102	0 / 0

Dustin Jacoby

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights19

Michal Oleksiejczuk

StanceSouthpaw

Height72.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights18