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Light Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Dustin Jacoby won · U-DEC

Elo1515

Elo1496

Dustin JacobyvsMaxim GrishinUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Gane · Saturday, February 27, 2021Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Dustin Jacoby won

U-DEC

Style matchupDustin Jacoby: Pressure fightervsMaxim Grishin: Striker

The pressure fighter will force exchanges. The cleaner striker needs lateral movement.

Model Prediction: Dustin Jacoby wins(61.2%)

Actual result: Dustin Jacoby wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Dustin Jacoby at -157 American odds

+$64 profit

$164 total returned

Tale of the Tape

Dustin Jacoby

Red Corner

Maxim Grishin

Blue Corner

-157

(61%)

Vegas Odds

+137

(42%)

1515

Elo

1496

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'3"

Height

6'3"

193.04 cm

Reach

198.12 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Dustin Jacoby

oldest →

KOvs Dominick Reyes · Jun 24

KOvs Vitor Petrino · Dec 24

KOvs Bruno Lopes · May 25

KOvs Julius Walker · Feb 26

KOvs Muhammad Saidov · Jul 26

latest

Maxim Grishin

oldest →

vs Marcin Tybura · Jul 20

KOvs Gadzhimurad Antigulov · Oct 20

vs William Knight · Feb 22

vs Philipe Lins · Jun 23

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Dustin JacobyMetricMaxim Grishin

5.40

Strikes / min

3.26

3.92

Strikes absorbed / min

2.27

57%

Strike defense

58%

0.32

TDs / 15 min

0.21

62%

Takedown defense

66%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.48evenly matched on net striking+0.99

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Dustin JacobyMaxim Grishin

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Dustin Jacoby(10 fights)Maxim Grishin(5 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +18.9|Blue -18.9

Recent Form

Red +0.8|Blue -0.8

Striker Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red -14.0|Blue +14.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Dustin JacobyTargetMaxim Grishin

By target zone

28% acc · 44%

Head

28% acc · 47%

47% acc · 12%

Body

50% acc · 12%

74% acc · 44%

Leg

90% acc · 41%

By position

41% acc · 96%

Distance

41% acc · 89%

50% acc · 4%

Clinch

40% acc · 3%

Ground

71% acc · 8%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Dustin Jacoby rounds

even

Maxim Grishin rounds

Round 1Maxim Grishin edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns0

Control0:13

Knockdowns0

21Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:08Control

2Knockdowns

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns0

Control0:00

18Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Even round

Sig. strikes26

Takedowns0

Control0:35

27Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:08Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

57 / 137

Sig Strikes

66 / 156

40.7%

Sig Str %

43.7%

60 / 141

Total Strikes

80 / 172

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 2

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:48

Ctrl Time

1:16

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Maxim Grishin	21 / 39	32 / 52	0 / 1
1	Dustin Jacoby	13 / 32	13 / 32	0 / 0
2	Maxim Grishin	18 / 42	18 / 42	0 / 1
2	Dustin Jacoby	18 / 48	18 / 48	0 / 0
3	Maxim Grishin	27 / 75	30 / 78	0 / 0
3	Dustin Jacoby	26 / 57	29 / 61	0 / 0

Dustin Jacoby

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights19

Maxim Grishin

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights5