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Light Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Dustin Jacoby won · KO/TKO
Elo1515
Dustin Jacoby
Elo1391

Dustin JacobyvsJustin LedetUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Hall vs. Silva · Saturday, October 31, 2020Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Dustin Jacoby won

KO/TKO

Style matchupDustin Jacoby: Pressure fightervsJustin Ledet: Striker

The pressure fighter will force exchanges. The cleaner striker needs lateral movement.

Model Prediction: Justin Ledet wins(56.6%)

Actual result: Dustin Jacoby wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Justin Ledet at +296 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Justin Ledet enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
  • Dustin Jacoby is a KO finisher (70% of wins). Justin Ledet has lost 50% of fights by KO.
  • Dustin Jacoby has 20pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Justin Ledet has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Dustin Jacoby
Red Corner
VS
Justin Ledet
Blue Corner
-400
(80%)
Vegas Odds
+296
(25%)
1515
Elo
1391
38
Age
37
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'3"
Height
6'4"
193.04 cm
Reach
203.2 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Dustin Jacoby
oldest →
L
KOvs Dominick Reyes · Jun 24
W
KOvs Vitor Petrino · Dec 24
W
KOvs Bruno Lopes · May 25
W
KOvs Julius Walker · Feb 26
L
KOvs Muhammad Saidov · Jul 26
latest
Justin LedetL3 streak
oldest →
W
SUBvs Mark Godbeer · Nov 16
W
DECvs Zu Anyanwu · Sep 17
L
vs Aleksandar Rakic · Jul 18
L
KOvs Johnny Walker · Feb 19
L
vs Aleksa Camur · Jan 20
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Dustin JacobyMetricJustin Ledet
5.40
Strikes / min
3.35
3.92
Strikes absorbed / min
4.82
57%
Strike defense
49%
0.32
TDs / 15 min
0.23
62%
Takedown defense
42%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.20
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.48Δ 2.95 — meaningful gap-1.47

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1464 vs 1489Strikes3.4 vs 3.3Takedowns0.3 vs 0.2Sub Atts0.00 vs 0.20Form-1.0 vs -0.8
Dustin JacobyJustin Ledet

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801498151515331550← oldermost recent →
Dustin Jacoby(10 fights)Justin Ledet(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +124.3|Blue -124.3
Recent Form
Red -0.2|Blue +0.2
Striker Score
Red -2.1|Blue +2.1
Grappler Score
Red -0.2|Blue +0.2
Layoff
Red +2912.0|Blue -2912.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Dustin JacobyTargetJustin Ledet

By target zone

10
45% acc · 45%
Head
8
28% acc · 80%
2
40% acc · 9%
Body
0
10
91% acc · 45%
Leg
2
100% acc · 20%

By position

17
59% acc · 77%
Distance
10
33% acc · 100%
0
0% acc
Clinch
0
0% acc
5
63% acc · 23%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Dustin Jacoby rounds
0
even
0
Justin Ledet rounds
Round 1Dustin Jacoby edged it
Sig. strikes22
Takedowns0
Control0:11
Knockdowns2
10Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
0Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

2
KD
0
22 / 38
Sig Strikes
10 / 31
57%
Sig Str %
32%
22 / 38
Total Strikes
10 / 31
0 / 0
TDs
0 / 0
—
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:11
Ctrl Time
0:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Justin Ledet10 / 3110 / 310 / 00
1Dustin Jacoby22 / 3822 / 380 / 00

Dustin Jacoby

StanceOrthodox
Height75.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights19

Justin Ledet

StanceOrthodox
Height76.0"
Reach80.0"
Fights7