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Light Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Dustin Jacoby won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1515

Elo1451

Dustin JacobyvsJulius WalkerUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Bautista vs. Oliveira · Saturday, February 7, 2026Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Dustin Jacoby won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 1:42

Style matchupDustin Jacoby: Pressure fightervsJulius Walker: Wrestler

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Dustin Jacoby wins(64.4%)

Actual result: Dustin Jacoby wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Dustin Jacoby at -146 American odds

+$68 profit

$168 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Dustin Jacoby is a KO finisher (70% of wins). Julius Walker has lost 67% of fights by KO.
Dustin Jacoby has 14pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Julius Walker has 38pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Dustin Jacoby

Red Corner

Julius Walker

Blue Corner

-146

(59%)

Vegas Odds

+124

(45%)

1515

Elo

1451

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'3"

Height

6'4"

193.04 cm

Reach

198.12 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Dustin Jacoby

oldest →

vs Alonzo Menifield · Dec 23

KOvs Dominick Reyes · Jun 24

KOvs Vitor Petrino · Dec 24

KOvs Bruno Lopes · May 25

KOvs Muhammad Saidov · Jul 26

latest

Julius Walker

oldest →

vs Alonzo Menifield · Feb 25

vs Rafael Cerqueira · Aug 25

KOvs Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev · Jun 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Dustin JacobyMetricJulius Walker

5.40

Strikes / min

3.73

3.92

Strikes absorbed / min

4.03

57%

Strike defense

43%

0.32

TDs / 15 min

4.09

62%

Takedown defense

100%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.48Δ 1.78 — meaningful gap-0.30

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Dustin JacobyJulius Walker

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Dustin Jacoby(10 fights)Julius Walker(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +64.4|Blue -64.4

Recent Form

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Striker Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Layoff

Red +70.0|Blue -70.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Dustin JacobyTargetJulius Walker

By target zone

55% acc · 83%

Head

18% acc · 43%

100% acc · 7%

Body

100% acc · 14%

100% acc · 10%

Leg

100% acc · 43%

By position

58% acc · 52%

Distance

33% acc · 57%

90% acc · 21%

Clinch

29% acc · 29%

48% acc · 26%

Ground

50% acc · 14%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Dustin Jacoby rounds

even

Julius Walker rounds

Round 1Julius Walker edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns0

Control0:27

5Sig. strikes

3Takedowns

2:29Control

Round 2Dustin Jacoby edged it

Sig. strikes29

Takedowns0

Control0:32

Knockdowns1

2Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:18Control

0Knockdowns

Fight Stats

Totals

42 / 71

Sig Strikes

7 / 21

60.5%

Sig Str %

33%

47 / 79

Total Strikes

12 / 26

0 / 0

TDs

3 / 7

—

TD %

25%

Sub Att

Rev

0:59

Ctrl Time

2:47

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Julius Walker	5 / 15	10 / 20	3 / 6
1	Dustin Jacoby	13 / 20	16 / 26	0 / 0
2	Julius Walker	2 / 6	2 / 6	0 / 1
2	Dustin Jacoby	29 / 51	31 / 53	0 / 0

Dustin Jacoby

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights19

Julius Walker

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights4