Skip to content
FIGHTDETECTIVE
← All fights/Event page
Light Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Dustin Jacoby won · U-DEC R3
Elo1515
Dustin Jacoby
Elo1411

Dustin JacobyvsJohn AllanUFC Prediction Result

UFC 268: Usman vs. Covington 2 · Saturday, November 6, 2021New York City, New York, USA

Official fight result

Dustin Jacoby won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Dustin Jacoby wins(63.7%)

Actual result: Dustin Jacoby wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Dustin Jacoby at -400 American odds

+$25 profit

$125 total returned

Tale of the Tape

Dustin Jacoby
Red Corner
VS
John Allan
Blue Corner
-400
(80%)
Vegas Odds
+300
(25%)
1515
Elo
1411
38
Age
33
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'3"
Height
6'1"
193.04 cm
Reach
190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Dustin Jacoby
oldest →
L
KOvs Dominick Reyes · Jun 24
W
KOvs Vitor Petrino · Dec 24
W
KOvs Bruno Lopes · May 25
W
KOvs Julius Walker · Feb 26
L
KOvs Muhammad Saidov · Jul 26
latest
John Allan
oldest →
L
vs Roman Dolidze · Dec 20
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Dustin JacobyMetricJohn Allan
5.40
Strikes / min
3.56
3.92
Strikes absorbed / min
5.74
57%
Strike defense
52%
0.32
TDs / 15 min
1.40
62%
Takedown defense
50%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.80
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.48Δ 3.66 — meaningful gap-2.18

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1514 vs 1485Strikes5.5 vs 3.6Takedowns0.4 vs 1.4Sub Atts0.00 vs 0.80Form1.0 vs -1.0
Dustin JacobyJohn Allan

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801498151515331550← oldermost recent →
Dustin Jacoby(10 fights)John Allan(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +104.1|Blue -104.1
Recent Form
Red +2.0|Blue -2.0
Striker Score
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Grappler Score
Red -0.7|Blue +0.7
Layoff
Red -266.0|Blue +266.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Dustin JacobyTargetJohn Allan

By target zone

110
41% acc · 72%
Head
43
29% acc · 56%
21
75% acc · 14%
Body
11
79% acc · 14%
22
96% acc · 14%
Leg
23
88% acc · 30%

By position

152
48% acc · 99%
Distance
76
41% acc · 99%
1
50% acc · 1%
Clinch
1
20% acc · 1%
0
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

3
Dustin Jacoby rounds
0
even
0
John Allan rounds
Round 1Dustin Jacoby edged it
Sig. strikes48
Takedowns0
Control0:00
25Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 2Dustin Jacoby edged it
Sig. strikes57
Takedowns0
Control0:00
25Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Round 3Dustin Jacoby edged it
Sig. strikes48
Takedowns0
Control0:00
27Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
153 / 321
Sig Strikes
77 / 189
47%
Sig Str %
40.3%
153 / 321
Total Strikes
78 / 190
0 / 0
TDs
0 / 0
—
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:00
Ctrl Time
0:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1John Allan25 / 5625 / 560 / 00
1Dustin Jacoby48 / 10548 / 1050 / 00
2John Allan25 / 6826 / 690 / 00
2Dustin Jacoby57 / 11957 / 1190 / 00
3John Allan27 / 6527 / 650 / 00
3Dustin Jacoby48 / 9748 / 970 / 00

Dustin Jacoby

StanceOrthodox
Height75.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights19

John Allan

StanceOrthodox
Height73.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights2