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Light Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Dustin Jacoby won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1515
Dustin Jacoby
Elo1407

Dustin JacobyvsDarren StewartUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Chikadze · Saturday, August 28, 2021Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Dustin Jacoby won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 3:04

Style matchupDustin Jacoby: Pressure fightervsDarren Stewart: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Dustin Jacoby wins(55.5%)

Actual result: Dustin Jacoby wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Dustin Jacoby at -200 American odds

+$50 profit

$150 total returned

Tale of the Tape

Dustin Jacoby
Red Corner
VS
Darren Stewart
Blue Corner
-200
(67%)
Vegas Odds
+170
(37%)
1515
Elo
1407
38
Age
35
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'3"
Height
6'0"
193.04 cm
Reach
187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Dustin Jacoby
oldest →
L
KOvs Dominick Reyes · Jun 24
W
KOvs Vitor Petrino · Dec 24
W
KOvs Bruno Lopes · May 25
W
KOvs Julius Walker · Feb 26
L
KOvs Muhammad Saidov · Jul 26
latest
Darren StewartL2 streak
oldest →
W
vs Bevon Lewis · Jun 19
W
vs Deron Winn · Oct 19
W
SUBvs Maki Pitolo · Aug 20
L
vs Kevin Holland · Sep 20
L
vs Eryk Anders · Jun 21
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Dustin JacobyMetricDarren Stewart
5.40
Strikes / min
3.05
3.92
Strikes absorbed / min
3.29
57%
Strike defense
48%
0.32
TDs / 15 min
1.75
62%
Takedown defense
67%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.10
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.48Δ 1.72 — meaningful gap-0.24

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1498 vs 1497Strikes4.3 vs 3.0Takedowns0.3 vs 1.8Sub Atts0.00 vs 0.10Form1.0 vs -0.3
Dustin JacobyDarren Stewart

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801498151515331550← oldermost recent →
Dustin Jacoby(10 fights)Darren Stewart(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +108.4|Blue -108.4
Recent Form
Red +1.3|Blue -1.3
Striker Score
Red -0.5|Blue +0.5
Grappler Score
Red -0.0|Blue +0.0
EVEN
Layoff
Red +105.0|Blue -105.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Dustin JacobyTargetDarren Stewart

By target zone

33
62% acc · 89%
Head
11
42% acc · 61%
3
50% acc · 8%
Body
4
100% acc · 22%
1
50% acc · 3%
Leg
3
100% acc · 17%

By position

30
58% acc · 81%
Distance
13
46% acc · 72%
6
75% acc · 16%
Clinch
5
100% acc · 28%
1
100% acc · 3%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Dustin Jacoby rounds
0
even
0
Darren Stewart rounds
Round 1Dustin Jacoby edged it
Sig. strikes37
Takedowns0
Control0:23
18Sig. strikes
2Takedowns
0:43Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
37 / 61
Sig Strikes
18 / 33
60%
Sig Str %
54%
38 / 63
Total Strikes
22 / 37
0 / 1
TDs
2 / 2
0%
TD %
100%
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:23
Ctrl Time
0:43

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Darren Stewart18 / 3322 / 372 / 20
1Dustin Jacoby37 / 6138 / 630 / 10

Dustin Jacoby

StanceOrthodox
Height75.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights19

Darren Stewart

StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights12