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Light Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Dustin Jacoby won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1515

Elo1470

Dustin JacobyvsBruno LopesUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Blanchfield vs. Barber · Saturday, May 31, 2025Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Dustin Jacoby won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 1:50

Style matchupDustin Jacoby: Pressure fightervsBruno Lopes: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Dustin Jacoby wins(53.8%)

Actual result: Dustin Jacoby wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Dustin Jacoby at -194 American odds

+$52 profit

$152 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Dustin Jacoby is a KO finisher (70% of wins). Bruno Lopes has lost 100% of fights by KO.
Bruno Lopes has 38pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Dustin Jacoby

Red Corner

Bruno Lopes

Blue Corner

-194

(66%)

Vegas Odds

+162

(38%)

1515

Elo

1470

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'3"

Height

6'2"

193.04 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Dustin Jacoby

oldest →

vs Alonzo Menifield · Dec 23

KOvs Dominick Reyes · Jun 24

KOvs Vitor Petrino · Dec 24

KOvs Julius Walker · Feb 26

KOvs Muhammad Saidov · Jul 26

latest

Bruno Lopes

oldest →

vs Magomed Gadzhiyasulov · Jan 25

KOvs Navajo Stirling · Mar 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Dustin JacobyMetricBruno Lopes

5.40

Strikes / min

2.88

3.92

Strikes absorbed / min

4.21

57%

Strike defense

54%

0.32

TDs / 15 min

1.93

62%

Takedown defense

100%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.48Δ 2.81 — meaningful gap-1.33

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Dustin JacobyBruno Lopes

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Dustin Jacoby(10 fights)Bruno Lopes(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +45.0|Blue -45.0

Recent Form

Red -0.9|Blue +0.9

Striker Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red +28.0|Blue -28.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Dustin JacobyTargetBruno Lopes

By target zone

57% acc · 94%

Head

25% acc · 33%

Body

50% acc · 33%

100% acc · 6%

Leg

33% acc · 33%

By position

52% acc · 65%

Distance

29% acc · 67%

75% acc · 35%

Clinch

50% acc · 33%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Dustin Jacoby rounds

even

Bruno Lopes rounds

Round 1Dustin Jacoby edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns0

Control0:30

Knockdowns1

3Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

17 / 29

Sig Strikes

3 / 9

58%

Sig Str %

33%

17 / 30

Total Strikes

5 / 12

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:30

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Bruno Lopes	3 / 9	5 / 12	0 / 0	0
1	Dustin Jacoby	17 / 29	17 / 30	0 / 0	0

Dustin Jacoby

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights19

Bruno Lopes

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights3