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Light Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Azamat Murzakanov won · U-DEC R3

Elo1515

Elo1536

Dustin JacobyvsAzamat MurzakanovUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Allen · Saturday, April 15, 2023Kansas City, Missouri, USA

Official fight result

Azamat Murzakanov won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupDustin Jacoby: Pressure fightervsAzamat Murzakanov: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Azamat Murzakanov wins(62.6%)

Actual result: Azamat Murzakanov wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Azamat Murzakanov at +136 American odds

+$136 profit

$236 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Azamat Murzakanov has 26pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Azamat Murzakanov (53.5%).
Dustin Jacoby has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Dustin Jacoby

Red Corner

Azamat Murzakanov

Blue Corner

-162

(62%)

Vegas Odds

+136

(42%)

1515

Elo

1536

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

6'3"

Height

5'10"

193.04 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Dustin Jacoby

oldest →

KOvs Dominick Reyes · Jun 24

KOvs Vitor Petrino · Dec 24

KOvs Bruno Lopes · May 25

KOvs Julius Walker · Feb 26

KOvs Muhammad Saidov · Jul 26

latest

Azamat Murzakanov

oldest →

KOvs Devin Clark · Aug 22

KOvs Alonzo Menifield · Aug 24

KOvs Brendson Ribeiro · Jun 25

KOvs Aleksandar Rakic · Oct 25

KOvs Paulo Costa · Apr 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Dustin JacobyMetricAzamat Murzakanov

5.40

Strikes / min

4.40

3.92

Strikes absorbed / min

3.20

57%

Strike defense

56%

0.32

TDs / 15 min

0.68

62%

Takedown defense

88%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.48evenly matched on net striking+1.20

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Dustin JacobyAzamat Murzakanov

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Dustin Jacoby(10 fights)Azamat Murzakanov(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -20.6|Blue +20.6

Recent Form

Red -0.7|Blue +0.7

Striker Score

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red -77.0|Blue +77.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Dustin JacobyTargetAzamat Murzakanov

By target zone

38% acc · 56%

Head

46% acc · 76%

67% acc · 13%

Body

92% acc · 18%

83% acc · 31%

Leg

100% acc · 6%

By position

48% acc · 94%

Distance

52% acc · 96%

80% acc · 6%

Clinch

60% acc · 4%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Dustin Jacoby rounds

even

Azamat Murzakanov rounds

Round 1Azamat Murzakanov edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns0

Control0:00

25Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:12Control

Round 2Azamat Murzakanov edged it

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns0

Control1:17

Knockdowns0

26Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:04Control

1Knockdowns

Round 3Dustin Jacoby edged it

Sig. strikes24

Takedowns1

Control1:49

16Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

64 / 131

Sig Strikes

67 / 127

48.7%

Sig Str %

52.3%

96 / 167

Total Strikes

70 / 130

1 / 6

TDs

1 / 5

10%

TD %

33.3%

Sub Att

Rev

3:06

Ctrl Time

0:16

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Azamat Murzakanov	25 / 50	25 / 50	1 / 1
1	Dustin Jacoby	19 / 39	19 / 39	0 / 0
2	Azamat Murzakanov	26 / 45	29 / 48	0 / 1
2	Dustin Jacoby	21 / 40	37 / 56	0 / 1
3	Azamat Murzakanov	16 / 32	16 / 32	0 / 3
3	Dustin Jacoby	24 / 52	40 / 72	1 / 5

Dustin Jacoby

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights19

Azamat Murzakanov

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights6