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Welterweight
3 Rounds
Rick Story won · KO/TKO R2
Elo1351
Elo1491
Rick Story

Dustin HazelettvsRick StoryUFC Prediction Result

UFC 117: Silva vs Sonnen · Saturday, August 7, 2010Oakland, California, USA

Official fight result

Rick Story won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 1:15

Model Prediction: Rick Story wins(76.0%)

Actual result: Rick Story wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Rick Story at +130 American odds

+$130 profit

$230 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Rick Story has 16pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Rick Story has 38pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Rick Story (53.5%).
  • Dustin Hazelett has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Dustin Hazelett
Red Corner
VS
Rick Story
Blue Corner
-150
(60%)
Vegas Odds
+130
(43%)
1351
Elo
1491
40
Age
41
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
6'1"
Height
5'9"
193.04 cm
Reach
180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Dustin Hazelett
oldest →
L
SUBvs Mark Bocek · Dec 10
latest
Rick Story
oldest →
L
vs Kelvin Gastelum · Mar 14
W
SUBvs Leonardo Mafra · Jul 14
W
vs Gunnar Nelson · Oct 14
W
vs Tarec Saffiedine · May 16
L
KOvs Donald Cerrone · Aug 16
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Dustin HazelettMetricRick Story
2.24
Strikes / min
3.80
3.51
Strikes absorbed / min
2.17
46%
Strike defense
62%
0.55
TDs / 15 min
2.53
25%
Takedown defense
63%
4.10
Sub atts / 15 min
0.90
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-1.27Δ 2.90 — meaningful gap+1.63

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1500 vs 1519Strikes14.4 vs 29.3Takedowns0.3 vs 3.0Sub Atts1.63 vs 2.00Form0.0 vs 1.0
Dustin HazelettRick Story

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14901495150015051510← oldermost recent →
Dustin Hazelett(2 fights)Rick Story(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -139.7|Blue +139.7
Recent Form
Red -1.0|Blue +1.0
Striker Score
Red +48.2|Blue -48.2
Grappler Score
Red +49.0|Blue -49.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Dustin HazelettTargetRick Story

By target zone

3
27% acc · 43%
Head
45
59% acc · 60%
4
67% acc · 57%
Body
30
88% acc · 40%
0
Leg
0

By position

4
31% acc · 57%
Distance
17
57% acc · 23%
3
75% acc · 43%
Clinch
26
70% acc · 35%
0
Ground
32
74% acc · 43%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Dustin Hazelett rounds
0
even
2
Rick Story rounds
Round 1Rick Story edged it
Sig. strikes6
Takedowns0
Control0:00
50Sig. strikes
3Takedowns
4:19Control
Round 2Rick Story edged it
Sig. strikes1
Takedowns0
Control0:00
Knockdowns0
25Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:49Control
1Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
1
7 / 17
Sig Strikes
75 / 110
35.5%
Sig Str %
67%
7 / 17
Total Strikes
132 / 169
0 / 2
TDs
3 / 3
0%
TD %
100%
2
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:00
Ctrl Time
5:08

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Rick Story50 / 72101 / 1233 / 30
1Dustin Hazelett6 / 136 / 130 / 12
2Rick Story25 / 3831 / 460 / 00
2Dustin Hazelett1 / 41 / 40 / 10

Dustin Hazelett

StanceOrthodox
Height73.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights2

Rick Story

StanceSouthpaw
Height69.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights16