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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Gregory Rodrigues won · U-DEC R3

Elo1494

Elo1548

Gregory Rodrigues editorial illustration

Dusko TodorovicvsGregory RodriguesUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Sakai · Saturday, June 5, 2021Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Gregory Rodrigues won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupDusko Todorovic: Pressure fightervsGregory Rodrigues: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Gregory Rodrigues wins(60.4%)

Actual result: Gregory Rodrigues wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Gregory Rodrigues at +140 American odds

+$140 profit

$240 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Gregory Rodrigues enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Dusko Todorovic is a KO finisher (75% of wins). Gregory Rodrigues has lost 67% of fights by KO.
Gregory Rodrigues is a KO finisher (70% of wins). Dusko Todorovic has lost 67% of fights by KO.
Gregory Rodrigues has 33pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Dusko Todorovic

Red Corner

Gregory Rodrigues

Blue Corner

-177

(64%)

Vegas Odds

+140

(42%)

1494

Elo

1548

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

6'3"

187.96 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Dusko Todorovic

oldest →

KOvs Jordan Wright · Oct 22

KOvs Christian Leroy Duncan · Mar 23

KOvs Mansur Abdul-Malik · Nov 24

vs Zach Reese · May 25

SUBvs Jose Daniel Medina · Sep 25

latest

Gregory RodriguesW3 streak

oldest →

vs Christian Leroy Duncan · Jul 24

KOvs Jared Cannonier · Feb 25

KOvs Jack Hermansson · Jun 25

vs Roman Kopylov · Nov 25

KOvs Brunno Ferreira · Mar 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Dusko TodorovicMetricGregory Rodrigues

4.73

Strikes / min

5.53

4.40

Strikes absorbed / min

4.78

48%

Strike defense

50%

1.77

TDs / 15 min

1.90

42%

Takedown defense

75%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.33evenly matched on net striking+0.75

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Dusko TodorovicGregory Rodrigues

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Dusko Todorovic(10 fights)Gregory Rodrigues(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -53.8|Blue +53.8

Recent Form

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Striker Score

Red -49.3|Blue +49.3

Grappler Score

Red -50.0|Blue +50.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Dusko TodorovicTargetGregory Rodrigues

By target zone

22% acc · 62%

Head

41% acc · 69%

77% acc · 27%

Body

79% acc · 27%

100% acc · 11%

Leg

50% acc · 4%

By position

25% acc · 73%

Distance

46% acc · 89%

71% acc · 27%

Clinch

57% acc · 11%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Dusko Todorovic rounds

even

Gregory Rodrigues rounds

Round 1Gregory Rodrigues edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns0

Control0:43

20Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:11Control

Round 2Gregory Rodrigues edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns0

Control0:25

23Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

1:12Control

Round 3Gregory Rodrigues edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns0

Control0:18

28Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:02Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

37 / 120

Sig Strikes

71 / 150

30.3%

Sig Str %

47%

46 / 133

Total Strikes

73 / 153

0 / 4

TDs

3 / 5

TD %

55.3%

Sub Att

Rev

1:26

Ctrl Time

1:25

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Gregory Rodrigues	20 / 46	22 / 48	1 / 1
1	Dusko Todorovic	10 / 36	12 / 38	0 / 1
2	Gregory Rodrigues	23 / 44	23 / 44	2 / 3
2	Dusko Todorovic	13 / 37	16 / 42	0 / 2
3	Gregory Rodrigues	28 / 60	28 / 61	0 / 1
3	Dusko Todorovic	14 / 47	18 / 53	0 / 1

Dusko Todorovic

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights10

Gregory Rodrigues

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights13