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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Duane Ludwig won · S-DEC R3

Elo1352

Elo1351

Duane LudwigvsNick OsipczakUFC Prediction Result

UFC 122: Marquardt vs Okami · Saturday, November 13, 2010Oberhausen, North Rhine-Westphalia, Germany

Official fight result

Duane Ludwig won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupDuane Ludwig: StrikervsNick Osipczak: Submission grappler

Striker must keep this standing. Grappler wins big if it hits the floor.

Model Prediction: Nick Osipczak wins(65.4%)

Actual result: Duane Ludwig wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Nick Osipczak at -340 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Duane Ludwig enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Striker vs grappler stylistic clash — fight location (standing vs ground) typically decides it.
Nick Osipczak has a 15cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Duane Ludwig

Red Corner

Nick Osipczak

Blue Corner

+280

(26%)

Vegas Odds

-340

(77%)

1352

Elo

1351

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

6'2"

177.8 cm

Reach

193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Duane LudwigL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Darren Elkins · Mar 10

vs Amir Sadollah · Aug 11

SUBvs Josh Neer · Jan 12

KOvs Dan Hardy · May 12

KOvs Che Mills · Sep 12

latest

Nick OsipczakL2 streak

oldest →

vs Rick Story · Apr 10

vs Greg Soto · Aug 10

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Duane LudwigMetricNick Osipczak

4.62

Strikes / min

2.83

3.05

Strikes absorbed / min

3.77

57%

Strike defense

50%

0.43

TDs / 15 min

1.20

59%

Takedown defense

71%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

1.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.57Δ 2.51 — meaningful gap-0.94

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Duane LudwigNick Osipczak

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Duane Ludwig(6 fights)Nick Osipczak(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +0.8|Blue -0.8

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red -0.9|Blue +0.9

Grappler Score

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Layoff

Red +160.0|Blue -160.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Duane LudwigTargetNick Osipczak

By target zone

32% acc · 49%

Head

42% acc · 50%

62% acc · 38%

Body

69% acc · 15%

71% acc · 12%

Leg

81% acc · 35%

By position

38% acc · 71%

Distance

53% acc · 77%

61% acc · 28%

Clinch

60% acc · 10%

100% acc · 1%

Ground

57% acc · 13%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Duane Ludwig rounds

even

Nick Osipczak rounds

Round 1Nick Osipczak edged it

Sig. strikes25

Takedowns0

Control0:02

Knockdowns0

27Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:14Control

2Knockdowns

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns0

Control0:06

17Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:25Control

Round 3Duane Ludwig edged it

Sig. strikes53

Takedowns0

Control0:53

16Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:18Control

Fight Stats

Totals

99 / 231

Sig Strikes

60 / 110

41.3%

Sig Str %

53.3%

106 / 238

Total Strikes

84 / 135

0 / 4

TDs

2 / 5

TD %

44.3%

Sub Att

Rev

1:01

Ctrl Time

3:57

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Nick Osipczak	27 / 44	46 / 64	1 / 3
1	Duane Ludwig	25 / 60	29 / 64	0 / 0
2	Nick Osipczak	17 / 35	21 / 39	1 / 1
2	Duane Ludwig	21 / 54	22 / 55	0 / 1
3	Nick Osipczak	16 / 31	17 / 32	0 / 1
3	Duane Ludwig	53 / 117	55 / 119	0 / 3

Duane Ludwig

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights6

Nick Osipczak

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights3