← All fights/Event page

Welterweight

3 Rounds

Josh Neer won · SUB R1

Elo1352

Elo1352

Duane LudwigvsJosh NeerUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FX: Guillard vs Miller · Friday, January 20, 2012Nashville, Tennessee, USA

Official fight result

Josh Neer won

SUB · Round 1 · 3:04

Style matchupDuane Ludwig: StrikervsJosh Neer: Submission grappler

Striker must keep this standing. Grappler wins big if it hits the floor.

Model Prediction: Duane Ludwig wins(58.0%)

Actual result: Josh Neer wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Duane Ludwig at +155 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Josh Neer enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Josh Neer is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Duane Ludwig has lost 75% of fights by KO.
Striker vs grappler stylistic clash — fight location (standing vs ground) typically decides it.

Tale of the Tape

Duane Ludwig

Red Corner

Josh Neer

Blue Corner

+155

(39%)

Vegas Odds

-165

(62%)

1352

Elo

1352

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

5'11"

177.8 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Duane LudwigL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Darren Elkins · Mar 10

vs Nick Osipczak · Nov 10

vs Amir Sadollah · Aug 11

KOvs Dan Hardy · May 12

KOvs Che Mills · Sep 12

latest

Josh NeerL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Keith Wisniewski · Oct 11

KOvs Mike Pyle · Jun 12

SUBvs Justin Edwards · Oct 12

vs Court McGee · Feb 13

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Duane LudwigMetricJosh Neer

4.62

Strikes / min

3.29

3.05

Strikes absorbed / min

3.63

57%

Strike defense

58%

0.43

TDs / 15 min

1.09

59%

Takedown defense

46%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

1.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.57Δ 1.91 — meaningful gap-0.34

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Duane LudwigJosh Neer

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Duane Ludwig(6 fights)Josh Neer(5 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Recent Form

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Striker Score

Red -0.7|Blue +0.7

Grappler Score

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Layoff

Red +48.0|Blue -48.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Duane LudwigTargetJosh Neer

By target zone

33% acc · 46%

Head

18% acc · 60%

100% acc · 50%

Body

67% acc · 40%

100% acc · 4%

Leg

By position

40% acc · 58%

Distance

25% acc · 100%

91% acc · 42%

Clinch

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Duane Ludwig rounds

even

Josh Neer rounds

Round 1Duane Ludwig edged it

Sig. strikes24

Takedowns0

Control0:10

5Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:09Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

24 / 46

Sig Strikes

5 / 20

52%

Sig Str %

25%

30 / 53

Total Strikes

6 / 21

0 / 0

TDs

1 / 3

—

TD %

33%

Sub Att

Rev

0:10

Ctrl Time

1:09

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Josh Neer	5 / 20	6 / 21	1 / 3	1
1	Duane Ludwig	24 / 46	30 / 53	0 / 0	0

Duane Ludwig

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights6

Josh Neer

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights5