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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Darren Elkins won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1352

Elo1499

Duane LudwigvsDarren ElkinsUFC Prediction Result

UFC Live: Vera vs Jones · Sunday, March 21, 2010Broomfield, Colorado, USA

Official fight result

Darren Elkins won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 0:44

Style matchupDuane Ludwig: StrikervsDarren Elkins: Wrestler

Classic striker-vs-wrestler. The wrestler historically gets the edge if they can close distance and finish takedowns.

Model Prediction: Duane Ludwig wins(67.4%)

Actual result: Darren Elkins wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Duane Ludwig at -155 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Duane Ludwig enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Striker vs grappler stylistic clash — fight location (standing vs ground) typically decides it.

Tale of the Tape

Duane Ludwig

Red Corner

Darren Elkins

Blue Corner

-155

(61%)

Vegas Odds

+135

(43%)

1352

Elo

1499

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

5'10"

177.8 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Duane LudwigL3 streak

oldest →

vs Nick Osipczak · Nov 10

vs Amir Sadollah · Aug 11

SUBvs Josh Neer · Jan 12

KOvs Dan Hardy · May 12

KOvs Che Mills · Sep 12

latest

Darren Elkins

oldest →

vs Tristan Connelly · Apr 22

vs Jonathan Pearce · Dec 22

SUBvs TJ Brown · Oct 23

vs Daniel Pineda · Oct 24

KOvs Julian Erosa · Apr 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Duane LudwigMetricDarren Elkins

4.62

Strikes / min

3.40

3.05

Strikes absorbed / min

3.34

57%

Strike defense

51%

0.43

TDs / 15 min

2.87

59%

Takedown defense

56%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

1.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.57Δ 1.51 — meaningful gap+0.06

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Duane LudwigDarren Elkins

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Duane Ludwig(6 fights)Darren Elkins(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -147.8|Blue +147.8

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Duane LudwigTargetDarren Elkins

By target zone

20% acc · 100%

Head

0% acc

Body

Leg

By position

20% acc · 100%

Distance

0% acc

Clinch

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Duane Ludwig rounds

even

Darren Elkins rounds

Round 1Darren Elkins edged it

Sig. strikes1

Takedowns0

Control0:03

0Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:10Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

1 / 5

Sig Strikes

0 / 2

20%

Sig Str %

1 / 5

Total Strikes

0 / 2

0 / 0

TDs

1 / 2

—

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

0:03

Ctrl Time

0:10

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Darren Elkins	0 / 2	0 / 2	1 / 2	0
1	Duane Ludwig	1 / 5	1 / 5	0 / 0	0

Duane Ludwig

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights6

Darren Elkins

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights30