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Middleweight

5 Rounds

Title Bout

Dricus Du Plessis won · U-DEC R5

Elo1542

Dricus Du Plessis editorial illustration

Elo1530

Dricus Du PlessisvsSean StricklandUFC Prediction Result

UFC 312: Du Plessis vs. Strickland 2 · Saturday, February 8, 2025Sydney, New South Wales, Australia

Official fight result

Dricus Du Plessis won

U-DEC · Round 5 · 5:00

Style matchupDricus Du Plessis: WrestlervsSean Strickland: Pressure fighter

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Dricus Du Plessis wins(80.4%)

Actual result: Dricus Du Plessis wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Dricus Du Plessis at -220 American odds

+$45 profit

$145 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Sean Strickland enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Sean Strickland has 34pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Dricus Du Plessis (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Dricus Du Plessis

Red Corner

Sean Strickland

Blue Corner

-220

(69%)

Vegas Odds

+184

(35%)

1542

Elo

1530

Age

Switch

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

6'1"

193.04 cm

Reach

193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Dricus Du Plessis

oldest →

KOvs Robert Whittaker · Jul 23

vs Sean Strickland · Jan 24

SUBvs Israel Adesanya · Aug 24

vs Khamzat Chimaev · Aug 25

DECvs Kamaru Usman · Jul 26

latest

Sean StricklandW3 streak

oldest →

vs Israel Adesanya · Sep 23

vs Dricus Du Plessis · Jan 24

vs Paulo Costa · Jun 24

KOvs Anthony Hernandez · Feb 26

DECvs Khamzat Chimaev · May 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Dricus Du PlessisMetricSean Strickland

5.18

Strikes / min

5.98

4.33

Strikes absorbed / min

4.53

52%

Strike defense

60%

2.22

TDs / 15 min

0.66

34%

Takedown defense

68%

0.70

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.85evenly matched on net striking+1.45

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Dricus Du PlessisSean Strickland

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Dricus Du Plessis(10 fights)Sean Strickland(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +11.7|Blue -11.7

Recent Form

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Striker Score

Red -0.9|Blue +0.9

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red -77.0|Blue +77.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Dricus Du PlessisTargetSean Strickland

By target zone

26% acc · 34%

Head

42% acc · 70%

76% acc · 31%

Body

71% acc · 23%

84% acc · 35%

Leg

90% acc · 7%

By position

147

47% acc · 100%

Distance

128

49% acc · 100%

Clinch

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Dricus Du Plessis rounds

even

Sean Strickland rounds

Round 1Dricus Du Plessis edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns0

Control0:00

16Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Dricus Du Plessis edged it

Sig. strikes31

Takedowns0

Control0:00

29Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Dricus Du Plessis edged it

Sig. strikes39

Takedowns1

Control0:05

24Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 4Sean Strickland edged it

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns0

Control0:00

28Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 5Dricus Du Plessis edged it

Sig. strikes36

Takedowns0

Control0:00

31Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

147 / 314

Sig Strikes

128 / 263

46.2%

Sig Str %

48%

149 / 316

Total Strikes

128 / 263

1 / 2

TDs

0 / 0

50%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:05

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Sean Strickland	16 / 49	16 / 49	0 / 0
1	Dricus Du Plessis	20 / 45	20 / 45	0 / 0
2	Sean Strickland	29 / 54	29 / 54	0 / 0
2	Dricus Du Plessis	31 / 60	31 / 60	0 / 0
3	Sean Strickland	24 / 47	24 / 47	0 / 0
3	Dricus Du Plessis	39 / 79	39 / 79	1 / 1
4	Dricus Du Plessis	21 / 66	23 / 68	0 / 0
4	Sean Strickland	28 / 51	28 / 51	0 / 0
5	Sean Strickland	31 / 62	31 / 62	0 / 0
5	Dricus Du Plessis	36 / 64	36 / 64	0 / 1

Dricus Du Plessis

StanceSwitch

Height73.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights11

Sean Strickland

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights25