Skip to content
FIGHTDETECTIVE
← All fights/Event page
Middleweight
5 Rounds
Title Bout
Khamzat Chimaev won · U-DEC R5
Elo1542
Dricus Du Plessis editorial illustration
Elo1517
Khamzat Chimaev

Dricus Du PlessisvsKhamzat ChimaevUFC Prediction Result

UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. Chimaev · Saturday, August 16, 2025Chicago, Illinois, USA

Official fight result

Khamzat Chimaev won

U-DEC · Round 5 · 5:00

Style matchupDricus Du Plessis: WrestlervsKhamzat Chimaev: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Khamzat Chimaev wins(76.4%)

Actual result: Khamzat Chimaev wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Khamzat Chimaev at -270 American odds

+$37 profit

$137 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Dricus Du Plessis enters on a 5-fight win streak.
  • Khamzat Chimaev has 53pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Dricus Du Plessis (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Dricus Du Plessis
Red Corner
VS
Khamzat Chimaev
Blue Corner
+220
(31%)
Vegas Odds
-270
(73%)
1542
Elo
1517
32
Age
32
Switch
Stance
Orthodox
6'1"
Height
6'2"
193.04 cm
Reach
190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Dricus Du PlessisW5 streak
oldest →
W
KOvs Robert Whittaker · Jul 23
W
vs Sean Strickland · Jan 24
W
SUBvs Israel Adesanya · Aug 24
W
vs Sean Strickland · Feb 25
W
DECvs Kamaru Usman · Jul 26
latest
Khamzat Chimaev
oldest →
W
vs Gilbert Burns · Apr 22
W
SUBvs Kevin Holland · Sep 22
W
vs Kamaru Usman · Oct 23
W
SUBvs Robert Whittaker · Oct 24
L
DECvs Sean Strickland · May 26
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Dricus Du PlessisMetricKhamzat Chimaev
5.18
Strikes / min
4.01
4.33
Strikes absorbed / min
2.98
52%
Strike defense
52%
2.22
TDs / 15 min
5.32
34%
Takedown defense
87%
0.70
Sub atts / 15 min
1.40
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.85evenly matched on net striking+1.03

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1680 vs 1656Strikes5.2 vs 4.0Takedowns2.2 vs 5.3Sub Atts0.70 vs 1.80Form1.1 vs 1.1
Dricus Du PlessisKhamzat Chimaev

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14901508152515431560← oldermost recent →
Dricus Du Plessis(10 fights)Khamzat Chimaev(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +25.0|Blue -25.0
Recent Form
Red -0.0|Blue +0.0
EVEN
Striker Score
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Grappler Score
Red -0.5|Blue +0.5
Layoff
Red -105.0|Blue +105.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Dricus Du PlessisTargetKhamzat Chimaev

By target zone

10
42% acc · 77%
Head
28
78% acc · 76%
2
50% acc · 15%
Body
3
60% acc · 8%
1
100% acc · 8%
Leg
6
100% acc · 16%

By position

10
40% acc · 77%
Distance
12
63% acc · 32%
0
Clinch
0
3
75% acc · 23%
Ground
25
89% acc · 68%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Dricus Du Plessis rounds
0
even
5
Khamzat Chimaev rounds
Round 1Khamzat Chimaev edged it
Sig. strikes0
Takedowns0
Control0:00
1Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
4:47Control
Round 2Khamzat Chimaev edged it
Sig. strikes0
Takedowns0
Control0:00
4Sig. strikes
2Takedowns
4:47Control
Round 3Khamzat Chimaev edged it
Sig. strikes1
Takedowns0
Control0:00
19Sig. strikes
3Takedowns
4:46Control
Round 4Khamzat Chimaev edged it
Sig. strikes2
Takedowns0
Control0:00
4Sig. strikes
3Takedowns
4:26Control
Round 5Khamzat Chimaev edged it
Sig. strikes10
Takedowns1
Control0:53
9Sig. strikes
3Takedowns
2:54Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
13 / 29
Sig Strikes
37 / 47
35%
Sig Str %
71.4%
45 / 68
Total Strikes
529 / 567
1 / 1
TDs
12 / 17
100%
TD %
82%
1
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:53
Ctrl Time
21:40

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Khamzat Chimaev1 / 2131 / 1371 / 10
1Dricus Du Plessis0 / 03 / 30 / 00
2Dricus Du Plessis0 / 26 / 100 / 00
2Khamzat Chimaev4 / 579 / 812 / 20
3Dricus Du Plessis1 / 29 / 100 / 00
3Khamzat Chimaev19 / 22156 / 1643 / 30
4Dricus Du Plessis2 / 58 / 130 / 00
4Khamzat Chimaev4 / 676 / 853 / 50
5Khamzat Chimaev9 / 1287 / 1003 / 60
5Dricus Du Plessis10 / 2019 / 321 / 11

Dricus Du Plessis

StanceSwitch
Height73.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights11

Khamzat Chimaev

StanceOrthodox
Height74.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights10