← All fights/Event page

Middleweight

5 Rounds

Dricus Du Plessis won · Decision R5

Elo1542

Dricus Du Plessis editorial illustration

Elo1489

Dricus Du PlessisvsKamaru UsmanUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Du Plessis vs. Usman · Saturday, July 18, 2026Oklahoma City, USA

Official fight result

Dricus Du Plessis won

Decision · Round 5 · 5:00

Engine 7.0 was wrong

Pre-fight pick: Kamaru Usman

If $100 had been placed on our pre-fight pick

Kamaru Usman at +191 American odds · hypothetical only

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Style matchupDricus Du Plessis: WrestlervsKamaru Usman: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Kamaru Usman has 55pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Dricus Du Plessis

Red Corner

Kamaru Usman

Blue Corner

-225

(69%)

Vegas Odds

+185

(35%)

1542

Elo

1489

Age

Switch

Stance

Switch

6'1"

Height

6'0"

193.04 cm

Reach

193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Dricus Du Plessis

oldest →

KOvs Robert Whittaker · Jul 23

vs Sean Strickland · Jan 24

SUBvs Israel Adesanya · Aug 24

vs Sean Strickland · Feb 25

vs Khamzat Chimaev · Aug 25

latest

Kamaru Usman

oldest →

vs Colby Covington · Nov 21

KOvs Leon Edwards · Aug 22

vs Leon Edwards · Mar 23

vs Khamzat Chimaev · Oct 23

vs Joaquin Buckley · Jun 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Dricus Du PlessisMetricKamaru Usman

5.18

Strikes / min

4.16

4.33

Strikes absorbed / min

2.67

52%

Strike defense

55%

2.22

TDs / 15 min

2.79

34%

Takedown defense

89%

0.70

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.85evenly matched on net striking+1.49

Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Dricus Du Plessis(10 fights)Kamaru Usman(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +52.5|Blue -52.5

Recent Form

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Striker Score

Red -1.0|Blue +1.0

Grappler Score

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red -63.0|Blue +63.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Dricus Du PlessisTargetKamaru Usman

By target zone

102

44% acc · 75%

Head

29% acc · 53%

80% acc · 18%

Body

64% acc · 40%

77% acc · 7%

Leg

100% acc · 7%

By position

132

49% acc · 97%

Distance

38% acc · 96%

100% acc · 3%

Clinch

100% acc · 4%

0% acc

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Dricus Du Plessis rounds

even

Kamaru Usman rounds

Round 1Dricus Du Plessis edged it

Sig. strikes29

Takedowns0

Control0:00

17Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Dricus Du Plessis edged it

Sig. strikes36

Takedowns0

Control0:06

14Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:15Control

Round 3Dricus Du Plessis edged it

Sig. strikes25

Takedowns0

Control0:00

17Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:02Control

Round 4Dricus Du Plessis edged it

Sig. strikes24

Takedowns0

Control0:00

21Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 5Even round

Sig. strikes22

Takedowns0

Control0:00

23Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:07Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

136 / 273

Sig Strikes

92 / 234

49.6%

Sig Str %

39.2%

139 / 278

Total Strikes

99 / 244

0 / 2

TDs

0 / 7

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:06

Ctrl Time

0:24

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Kamaru Usman	17 / 41	18 / 42	0 / 1
1	Dricus Du Plessis	29 / 62	30 / 63	0 / 0
2	Dricus Du Plessis	36 / 70	38 / 73	0 / 0
2	Kamaru Usman	14 / 39	19 / 46	0 / 1
3	Kamaru Usman	17 / 38	17 / 38	0 / 1
3	Dricus Du Plessis	25 / 43	25 / 43	0 / 0
4	Kamaru Usman	21 / 49	21 / 50	0 / 3
4	Dricus Du Plessis	24 / 51	24 / 52	0 / 0
5	Dricus Du Plessis	22 / 47	22 / 47	0 / 2
5	Kamaru Usman	23 / 67	24 / 68	0 / 1

The Pick

Vegas favorite

Dricus Du Plessis

Odds

-234

Market-implied probability

Kamaru Usman 33%

Model pick shown for research — not a betting edge.

$100 bet returns

Dricus Du Plessis$143

Kamaru Usman (model pick · research)$291

33% market-implied · model 56% (research) · vufc_v7_0_20260718_090638

🔒 Pick locked Jul 18, 2026, 9:29 AM UTC at +191 · never rewritten

Dricus Du Plessis

StanceSwitch

Height73.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights11

Kamaru Usman

StanceSwitch

Height72.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights20