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Middleweight

5 Rounds

Title Bout

Dricus Du Plessis won · SUB R4

Elo1542

Dricus Du Plessis editorial illustration

Elo1464

Dricus Du PlessisvsIsrael AdesanyaUFC Prediction Result

UFC 305: Du Plessis vs. Adesanya · Saturday, August 17, 2024Perth, Western Australia, Australia

Official fight result

Dricus Du Plessis won

SUB · Round 4 · 3:38

Style matchupDricus Du Plessis: WrestlervsIsrael Adesanya: Striker

Classic wrestler-vs-striker. The wrestler historically gets the edge if they can close distance and finish takedowns.

Model Prediction: Dricus Du Plessis wins(87.4%)

Actual result: Dricus Du Plessis wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Dricus Du Plessis at -120 American odds

+$83 profit

$183 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Israel Adesanya enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Israel Adesanya has 42pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Striker vs grappler stylistic clash — fight location (standing vs ground) typically decides it.
Israel Adesanya has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Dricus Du Plessis

Red Corner

Israel Adesanya

Blue Corner

-120

(55%)

Vegas Odds

+100

(50%)

1542

Elo

1464

Age

Switch

Stance

Switch

6'1"

Height

6'4"

193.04 cm

Reach

203.2 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Dricus Du Plessis

oldest →

KOvs Robert Whittaker · Jul 23

vs Sean Strickland · Jan 24

vs Sean Strickland · Feb 25

vs Khamzat Chimaev · Aug 25

DECvs Kamaru Usman · Jul 26

latest

Israel AdesanyaL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Alex Pereira · Nov 22

KOvs Alex Pereira · Apr 23

vs Sean Strickland · Sep 23

KOvs Nassourdine Imavov · Feb 25

KOvs Joe Pyfer · Mar 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Dricus Du PlessisMetricIsrael Adesanya

5.18

Strikes / min

4.03

4.33

Strikes absorbed / min

3.22

52%

Strike defense

55%

2.22

TDs / 15 min

0.05

34%

Takedown defense

76%

0.70

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.85evenly matched on net striking+0.81

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Dricus Du PlessisIsrael Adesanya

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Dricus Du Plessis(10 fights)Israel Adesanya(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +77.5|Blue -77.5

Recent Form

Red +1.1|Blue -1.1

Striker Score

Red -1.0|Blue +1.0

Grappler Score

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Layoff

Red -133.0|Blue +133.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Dricus Du PlessisTargetIsrael Adesanya

By target zone

39% acc · 68%

Head

38% acc · 65%

54% acc · 8%

Body

90% acc · 27%

76% acc · 24%

Leg

89% acc · 8%

By position

43% acc · 89%

Distance

46% acc · 95%

73% acc · 9%

Clinch

100% acc · 4%

100% acc · 2%

Ground

100% acc · 1%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Dricus Du Plessis rounds

even

Israel Adesanya rounds

Round 1Dricus Du Plessis edged it

Sig. strikes22

Takedowns0

Control0:00

16Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Dricus Du Plessis edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns3

Control3:28

17Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:02Control

Round 3Israel Adesanya edged it

Sig. strikes31

Takedowns0

Control0:00

40Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 4Dricus Du Plessis edged it

Sig. strikes24

Takedowns1

Control0:11

24Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:07Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

90 / 197

Sig Strikes

97 / 203

47%

Sig Str %

48%

99 / 206

Total Strikes

105 / 211

4 / 9

TDs

0 / 1

27.5%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

3:39

Ctrl Time

0:09

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Israel Adesanya	16 / 37	16 / 37	0 / 0	0
1	Dricus Du Plessis	22 / 52	22 / 52	0 / 1	0
2	Dricus Du Plessis	13 / 25	22 / 34	3 / 5	1
2	Israel Adesanya	17 / 30	25 / 38	0 / 1	0
3	Israel Adesanya	40 / 83	40 / 83	0 / 0	0
3	Dricus Du Plessis	31 / 75	31 / 75	0 / 1	0
4	Israel Adesanya	24 / 53	24 / 53	0 / 0	0
4	Dricus Du Plessis	24 / 45	24 / 45	1 / 2	1

Dricus Du Plessis

StanceSwitch

Height73.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights11

Israel Adesanya

StanceSwitch

Height76.0"

Reach80.0"

Fights19