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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Drew Dober won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1514

Elo1504

Terrance McKinney editorial illustration

Drew DobervsTerrance McKinneyUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Ankalaev · Saturday, March 12, 2022Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Drew Dober won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 3:17

Style matchupDrew Dober: Pressure fightervsTerrance McKinney: Wrestler

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Terrance McKinney wins(73.4%)

Actual result: Drew Dober wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Terrance McKinney at +135 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Drew Dober is a KO finisher (73% of wins). Terrance McKinney has lost 67% of fights by KO.
Drew Dober has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Stance matchup historically favors Terrance McKinney (54.1%).

Tale of the Tape

Drew Dober

Red Corner

Terrance McKinney

Blue Corner

-155

(61%)

Vegas Odds

+135

(43%)

1514

Elo

1504

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Switch

5'8"

Height

5'10"

177.8 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Drew DoberW2 streak

oldest →

vs Renato Moicano · Feb 24

KOvs Jean Silva · Jul 24

KOvs Manuel Torres · Mar 25

KOvs Kyle Prepolec · Oct 25

KOvs Michael Johnson · Mar 26

latest

Terrance McKinney

oldest →

KOvs Damir Hadzovic · Feb 25

SUBvs Viacheslav Borshchev · Jun 25

SUBvs Chris Duncan · Dec 25

KOvs Kyle Nelson · Mar 26

KOvs King Green · Jul 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Drew DoberMetricTerrance McKinney

4.48

Strikes / min

6.53

4.33

Strikes absorbed / min

3.45

53%

Strike defense

43%

0.61

TDs / 15 min

3.31

58%

Takedown defense

72%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

2.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.15Δ 2.93 — meaningful gap+3.08

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Drew DoberTerrance McKinney

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Drew Dober(10 fights)Terrance McKinney(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +10.1|Blue -10.1

Recent Form

Red -1.4|Blue +1.4

Striker Score

Red +1.2|Blue -1.2

Grappler Score

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Layoff

Red +259.0|Blue -259.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Drew DoberTargetTerrance McKinney

By target zone

41% acc · 82%

Head

58% acc · 92%

100% acc · 12%

Body

75% acc · 8%

100% acc · 6%

Leg

By position

32% acc · 35%

Distance

47% acc · 42%

100% acc · 12%

Clinch

100% acc · 14%

56% acc · 53%

Ground

67% acc · 44%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Drew Dober rounds

even

Terrance McKinney rounds

Round 1Terrance McKinney edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns0

Control0:24

Knockdowns1

36Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

1:33Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

17 / 37

Sig Strikes

36 / 61

45%

Sig Str %

59%

31 / 52

Total Strikes

43 / 74

0 / 1

TDs

2 / 3

TD %

66%

Sub Att

Rev

0:24

Ctrl Time

1:33

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Terrance McKinney	36 / 61	43 / 74	2 / 3	0
1	Drew Dober	17 / 37	31 / 52	0 / 1	0

Drew Dober

StanceSouthpaw

Height68.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights26

Terrance McKinney

StanceSwitch

Height70.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights14