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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Drew Dober won · KO/TKO R3

Elo1514

Elo1451

Drew DobervsRafael AlvesUFC Prediction Result

UFC 277: Pena vs. Nunes 2 · Saturday, July 30, 2022Dallas, Texas, USA

Official fight result

Drew Dober won

KO/TKO · Round 3 · 1:30

Model Prediction: Drew Dober wins(62.6%)

Actual result: Drew Dober wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Drew Dober at -165 American odds

+$61 profit

$161 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Rafael Alves threatens submissions; Drew Dober has lost 36% of fights by sub.
Stance matchup historically favors Drew Dober (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Drew Dober

Red Corner

Rafael Alves

Blue Corner

-165

(62%)

Vegas Odds

+140

(42%)

1514

Elo

1451

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'8"

Height

5'8"

177.8 cm

Reach

172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Drew DoberW2 streak

oldest →

vs Renato Moicano · Feb 24

KOvs Jean Silva · Jul 24

KOvs Manuel Torres · Mar 25

KOvs Kyle Prepolec · Oct 25

KOvs Michael Johnson · Mar 26

latest

Rafael Alves

oldest →

vs Damir Ismagulov · May 21

SUBvs Marc Diakiese · Nov 21

vs Nurullo Aliev · Feb 23

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Drew DoberMetricRafael Alves

4.48

Strikes / min

1.85

4.33

Strikes absorbed / min

3.30

53%

Strike defense

58%

0.61

TDs / 15 min

0.29

58%

Takedown defense

44%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

1.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.15Δ 1.60 — meaningful gap-1.45

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Drew DoberRafael Alves

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Drew Dober(10 fights)Rafael Alves(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +62.8|Blue -62.8

Recent Form

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red +1.2|Blue -1.2

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red -119.0|Blue +119.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Drew DoberTargetRafael Alves

By target zone

31% acc · 61%

Head

44% acc · 65%

83% acc · 32%

Body

100% acc · 22%

67% acc · 6%

Leg

100% acc · 14%

By position

40% acc · 97%

Distance

52% acc · 84%

Clinch

100% acc · 3%

Ground

71% acc · 14%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Drew Dober rounds

even

Rafael Alves rounds

Round 1Rafael Alves edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns0

Control0:00

11Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:21Control

Round 2Drew Dober edged it

Sig. strikes37

Takedowns0

Control0:04

20Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Drew Dober edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns0

Control0:03

Knockdowns1

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

62 / 151

Sig Strikes

37 / 68

46%

Sig Str %

59%

62 / 151

Total Strikes

46 / 80

0 / 0

TDs

1 / 3

—

TD %

33.3%

Sub Att

Rev

0:07

Ctrl Time

2:21

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Rafael Alves	11 / 22	19 / 30	1 / 1
1	Drew Dober	11 / 36	11 / 36	0 / 0
2	Rafael Alves	20 / 38	21 / 42	0 / 1
2	Drew Dober	37 / 95	37 / 95	0 / 0
3	Rafael Alves	6 / 8	6 / 8	0 / 1
3	Drew Dober	14 / 20	14 / 20	0 / 0

Drew Dober

StanceSouthpaw

Height68.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights26

Rafael Alves

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights4