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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Drew Dober won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1514

Elo1510

Drew DobervsNasrat HaqparastUFC Prediction Result

UFC 246: McGregor vs. Cowboy · Saturday, January 18, 2020Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Drew Dober won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 1:10

Style matchupDrew Dober: Pressure fightervsNasrat Haqparast: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Nasrat Haqparast wins(51.6%)

Actual result: Drew Dober wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Nasrat Haqparast at -320 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Nasrat Haqparast has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Nasrat Haqparast has 28pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Drew Dober

Red Corner

Nasrat Haqparast

Blue Corner

+290

(26%)

Vegas Odds

-320

(76%)

1514

Elo

1510

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Southpaw

5'8"

Height

5'10"

177.8 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Drew DoberW2 streak

oldest →

vs Renato Moicano · Feb 24

KOvs Jean Silva · Jul 24

KOvs Manuel Torres · Mar 25

KOvs Kyle Prepolec · Oct 25

KOvs Michael Johnson · Mar 26

latest

Nasrat Haqparast

oldest →

vs Landon Quinones · Sep 23

KOvs Jamie Mullarkey · Dec 23

vs Jared Gordon · Jun 24

vs Esteban Ribovics · Mar 25

KOvs Quillan Salkilld · Oct 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Drew DoberMetricNasrat Haqparast

4.48

Strikes / min

6.36

4.33

Strikes absorbed / min

6.00

53%

Strike defense

63%

0.61

TDs / 15 min

0.34

58%

Takedown defense

86%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.15evenly matched on net striking+0.36

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Drew DoberNasrat Haqparast

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Drew Dober(10 fights)Nasrat Haqparast(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +3.8|Blue -3.8

Recent Form

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Striker Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red +35.0|Blue -35.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Drew DoberTargetNasrat Haqparast

By target zone

50% acc · 92%

Head

43% acc · 43%

50% acc · 8%

Body

100% acc · 29%

Leg

100% acc · 29%

By position

13% acc · 15%

Distance

64% acc · 100%

Clinch

100% acc · 85%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Drew Dober rounds

even

Nasrat Haqparast rounds

Round 1Drew Dober edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns0

Control0:06

Knockdowns1

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

13 / 26

Sig Strikes

7 / 11

50%

Sig Str %

63%

13 / 26

Total Strikes

7 / 11

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:06

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Nasrat Haqparast	7 / 11	7 / 11	0 / 0	0
1	Drew Dober	13 / 26	13 / 26	0 / 0	0

Drew Dober

StanceSouthpaw

Height68.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights26

Nasrat Haqparast

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights15