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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Drew Dober won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1514

Elo1502

Drew DobervsMichael JohnsonUFC Prediction Result

UFC 326: Holloway vs. Oliveira 2 · Saturday, March 7, 2026Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Drew Dober won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 1:53

Style matchupDrew Dober: Pressure fightervsMichael Johnson: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Drew Dober wins(58.1%)

Actual result: Drew Dober wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Drew Dober at -200 American odds

+$50 profit

$150 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Michael Johnson enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Michael Johnson has 23pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Drew Dober

Red Corner

Michael Johnson

Blue Corner

-200

(67%)

Vegas Odds

+168

(37%)

1514

Elo

1502

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Southpaw

5'8"

Height

5'10"

177.8 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Drew Dober

oldest →

KOvs Ricky Glenn · Oct 23

vs Renato Moicano · Feb 24

KOvs Jean Silva · Jul 24

KOvs Manuel Torres · Mar 25

KOvs Kyle Prepolec · Oct 25

latest

Michael JohnsonW3 streak

oldest →

vs Marc Diakiese · Dec 22

KOvs Diego Ferreira · May 23

vs Darrius Flowers · Feb 24

KOvs Ottman Azaitar · Dec 24

vs Daniel Zellhuber · Jul 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Drew DoberMetricMichael Johnson

4.48

Strikes / min

4.27

4.33

Strikes absorbed / min

3.78

53%

Strike defense

58%

0.61

TDs / 15 min

0.57

58%

Takedown defense

81%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.15evenly matched on net striking+0.49

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Drew DoberMichael Johnson

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Drew Dober(10 fights)Michael Johnson(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +11.3|Blue -11.3

Recent Form

Red -0.8|Blue +0.8

Striker Score

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red -91.0|Blue +91.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Drew DoberTargetMichael Johnson

By target zone

27% acc · 41%

Head

33% acc · 67%

50% acc · 32%

Body

0% acc

75% acc · 27%

Leg

90% acc · 33%

By position

39% acc · 95%

Distance

36% acc · 100%

Clinch

100% acc · 5%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Drew Dober rounds

even

Michael Johnson rounds

Round 1Michael Johnson edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns0

Control0:00

18Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Drew Dober edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns1

9Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Fight Stats

Totals

22 / 55

Sig Strikes

27 / 76

39.5%

Sig Str %

35.5%

22 / 55

Total Strikes

27 / 76

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Michael Johnson	18 / 51	18 / 51	0 / 0
1	Drew Dober	11 / 29	11 / 29	0 / 0
2	Michael Johnson	9 / 25	9 / 25	0 / 0
2	Drew Dober	11 / 26	11 / 26	0 / 0

Drew Dober

StanceSouthpaw

Height68.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights26

Michael Johnson

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights32