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Lightweight
3 Rounds
Drew Dober won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1514
Drew Dober
Elo1376

Drew DobervsMarco Polo ReyesUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Ngannou vs. Dos Santos · Saturday, June 29, 2019Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA

Official fight result

Drew Dober won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 1:07

Style matchupDrew Dober: Pressure fightervsMarco Polo Reyes: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Marco Polo Reyes wins(64.8%)

Actual result: Drew Dober wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Marco Polo Reyes at +345 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Drew Dober is a KO finisher (73% of wins). Marco Polo Reyes has lost 100% of fights by KO.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Drew Dober (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Drew Dober
Red Corner
VS
Marco Polo Reyes
Blue Corner
-430
(81%)
Vegas Odds
+345
(22%)
1514
Elo
1376
37
Age
41
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
5'8"
Height
5'11"
177.8 cm
Reach
180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Drew DoberW2 streak
oldest →
L
vs Renato Moicano · Feb 24
L
KOvs Jean Silva · Jul 24
L
KOvs Manuel Torres · Mar 25
W
KOvs Kyle Prepolec · Oct 25
W
KOvs Michael Johnson · Mar 26
latest
Marco Polo Reyes
oldest →
L
KOvs Kyle Nelson · Sep 19
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Drew DoberMetricMarco Polo Reyes
4.48
Strikes / min
6.00
4.33
Strikes absorbed / min
5.52
53%
Strike defense
59%
0.61
TDs / 15 min
0.00
58%
Takedown defense
46%
0.10
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.15evenly matched on net striking+0.48

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1524 vs 1500Strikes4.5 vs 6.0Takedowns0.9 vs 0.0Sub Atts0.10 vs 0.00Form0.0 vs 0.0
Drew DoberMarco Polo Reyes

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14701485150015151530← oldermost recent →
Drew Dober(10 fights)Marco Polo Reyes(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +137.5|Blue -137.5
Recent Form
Red +0.0|Blue -0.0
EVEN
Striker Score
Red -47.9|Blue +47.9
Grappler Score
Red -49.9|Blue +49.9
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Drew DoberTargetMarco Polo Reyes

By target zone

15
68% acc · 94%
Head
4
31% acc · 80%
0
0% acc
Body
0
1
50% acc · 6%
Leg
1
100% acc · 20%

By position

11
50% acc · 69%
Distance
5
36% acc · 100%
1
100% acc · 6%
Clinch
0
4
100% acc · 25%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Drew Dober rounds
0
even
0
Marco Polo Reyes rounds
Round 1Drew Dober edged it
Sig. strikes16
Takedowns0
Control0:05
Knockdowns1
5Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
0Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

1
KD
0
16 / 27
Sig Strikes
5 / 14
59%
Sig Str %
35%
17 / 29
Total Strikes
5 / 14
0 / 0
TDs
0 / 1
—
TD %
0%
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:05
Ctrl Time
0:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Marco Polo Reyes5 / 145 / 140 / 10
1Drew Dober16 / 2717 / 290 / 00

Drew Dober

StanceSouthpaw
Height68.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights26

Marco Polo Reyes

StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights2