← All fights/Event page

Lightweight

3 Rounds

Drew Dober won · U-DEC R3

Elo1514

Elo1491

Drew DobervsJon TuckUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Gaethje vs. Vick · Saturday, August 25, 2018Lincoln, Nebraska, USA

Official fight result

Drew Dober won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Drew Dober wins(72.3%)

Actual result: Drew Dober wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Drew Dober at -240 American odds

+$42 profit

$142 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Jon Tuck threatens submissions; Drew Dober has lost 36% of fights by sub.
Stance matchup historically favors Drew Dober (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Drew Dober

Red Corner

Jon Tuck

Blue Corner

-240

(71%)

Vegas Odds

+200

(33%)

1514

Elo

1491

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'8"

Height

5'11"

177.8 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Drew DoberW2 streak

oldest →

vs Renato Moicano · Feb 24

KOvs Jean Silva · Jul 24

KOvs Manuel Torres · Mar 25

KOvs Kyle Prepolec · Oct 25

KOvs Michael Johnson · Mar 26

latest

Jon Tuck

oldest →

vs Kevin Lee · Sep 14

SUBvs Tae Hyun Bang · May 15

vs Josh Emmett · May 16

vs Damien Brown · Nov 16

SUBvs Takanori Gomi · Jun 17

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Drew DoberMetricJon Tuck

4.48

Strikes / min

3.00

4.33

Strikes absorbed / min

3.74

53%

Strike defense

60%

0.61

TDs / 15 min

0.42

58%

Takedown defense

50%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

1.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.15evenly matched on net striking-0.74

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Drew DoberJon Tuck

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Drew Dober(10 fights)Jon Tuck(9 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +22.6|Blue -22.6

Recent Form

Red +0.7|Blue -0.7

Striker Score

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Grappler Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Layoff

Red -224.0|Blue +224.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Drew DoberTargetJon Tuck

By target zone

38% acc · 70%

Head

30% acc · 48%

69% acc · 15%

Body

67% acc · 30%

75% acc · 15%

Leg

100% acc · 21%

By position

33% acc · 60%

Distance

43% acc · 88%

100% acc · 5%

Clinch

50% acc · 3%

84% acc · 35%

Ground

60% acc · 9%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Drew Dober rounds

even

Jon Tuck rounds

Round 1Drew Dober edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns0

Control0:41

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Drew Dober edged it

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns1

Control3:06

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Drew Dober edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns1

Control4:01

9Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

60 / 136

Sig Strikes

33 / 75

46.3%

Sig Str %

48.7%

122 / 208

Total Strikes

39 / 81

2 / 2

TDs

0 / 1

100%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

7:48

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Jon Tuck	13 / 34	13 / 34	0 / 0	0
1	Drew Dober	20 / 62	24 / 66	0 / 0	0
2	Jon Tuck	11 / 28	16 / 33	0 / 1	1
2	Drew Dober	21 / 38	44 / 66	1 / 1	0
3	Jon Tuck	9 / 13	10 / 14	0 / 0	0
3	Drew Dober	19 / 36	54 / 76	1 / 1	0

Drew Dober

StanceSouthpaw

Height68.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights26

Jon Tuck

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights9