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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Jean Silva won · KO/TKO R3

Elo1514

Elo1557

Drew DobervsJean SilvaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Namajunas vs. Cortez · Saturday, July 13, 2024Denver, Colorado, USA

Official fight result

Jean Silva won

KO/TKO · Round 3 · 1:28

Style matchupDrew Dober: Pressure fightervsJean Silva: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Jean Silva wins(78.1%)

Actual result: Jean Silva wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jean Silva at -110 American odds

+$91 profit

$191 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Jean Silva has 20pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Drew Dober (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Drew Dober

Red Corner

Jean Silva

Blue Corner

-110

(52%)

Vegas Odds

-110

(52%)

1514

Elo

1557

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'8"

Height

5'7"

177.8 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Drew DoberW2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Ricky Glenn · Oct 23

vs Renato Moicano · Feb 24

KOvs Manuel Torres · Mar 25

KOvs Kyle Prepolec · Oct 25

KOvs Michael Johnson · Mar 26

latest

Jean Silva

oldest →

KOvs Charles Jourdain · Jun 24

KOvs Melsik Baghdasaryan · Feb 25

SUBvs Bryce Mitchell · Apr 25

KOvs Diego Lopes · Sep 25

vs Arnold Allen · Jan 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Drew DoberMetricJean Silva

4.48

Strikes / min

4.82

4.33

Strikes absorbed / min

4.50

53%

Strike defense

53%

0.61

TDs / 15 min

1.20

58%

Takedown defense

78%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.15evenly matched on net striking+0.32

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Drew DoberJean Silva

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Drew Dober(10 fights)Jean Silva(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -43.2|Blue +43.2

Recent Form

Red -1.0|Blue +1.0

Striker Score

Red +0.7|Blue -0.7

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red +147.0|Blue -147.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Drew DoberTargetJean Silva

By target zone

27% acc · 49%

Head

42% acc · 70%

75% acc · 36%

Body

79% acc · 28%

90% acc · 15%

Leg

100% acc · 2%

By position

40% acc · 93%

Distance

48% acc · 91%

44% acc · 7%

Clinch

71% acc · 9%

Ground

0% acc

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Drew Dober rounds

even

Jean Silva rounds

Round 1Drew Dober edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns0

Control0:00

16Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes30

Takedowns0

Control0:13

31Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Drew Dober edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns0

Control0:17

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

59 / 147

Sig Strikes

53 / 109

41%

Sig Str %

48%

59 / 148

Total Strikes

53 / 109

0 / 4

TDs

0 / 0

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:30

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Jean Silva	16 / 42	16 / 42	0 / 0
1	Drew Dober	20 / 58	20 / 58	0 / 0
2	Jean Silva	31 / 55	31 / 55	0 / 0
2	Drew Dober	30 / 70	30 / 71	0 / 2
3	Jean Silva	6 / 12	6 / 12	0 / 0
3	Drew Dober	9 / 19	9 / 19	0 / 2

Drew Dober

StanceSouthpaw

Height68.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights26

Jean Silva

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights7