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Lightweight
3 Rounds
Drew Dober won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1514
Drew Dober
Elo1372
Jason Gonzalez

Drew DobervsJason GonzalezUFC Prediction Result

UFC 203: Miocic vs. Overeem · Saturday, September 10, 2016Cleveland, Ohio, USA

Official fight result

Drew Dober won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 1:45

Model Prediction: Jason Gonzalez wins(53.6%)

Actual result: Drew Dober wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jason Gonzalez at +130 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Jason Gonzalez threatens submissions; Drew Dober has lost 36% of fights by sub.
  • Drew Dober has 28pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Jason Gonzalez has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Drew Dober
Red Corner
VS
Jason Gonzalez
Blue Corner
-150
(60%)
Vegas Odds
+130
(43%)
1514
Elo
1372
37
Age
36
Southpaw
Stance
Southpaw
5'8"
Height
6'2"
177.8 cm
Reach
187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Drew DoberW2 streak
oldest →
L
vs Renato Moicano · Feb 24
L
KOvs Jean Silva · Jul 24
L
KOvs Manuel Torres · Mar 25
W
KOvs Kyle Prepolec · Oct 25
W
KOvs Michael Johnson · Mar 26
latest
Jason GonzalezL2 streak
oldest →
W
SUBvs JC Cottrell · Jan 17
L
SUBvs Gregor Gillespie · Sep 17
L
SUBvs Jim Miller · Apr 19
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Drew DoberMetricJason Gonzalez
4.48
Strikes / min
3.06
4.33
Strikes absorbed / min
3.13
53%
Strike defense
58%
0.61
TDs / 15 min
0.00
58%
Takedown defense
30%
0.10
Sub atts / 15 min
1.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.15evenly matched on net striking-0.07

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1485 vs 1500Strikes28.8 vs —Takedowns0.8 vs —Sub Atts0.17 vs —Form0.2 vs 0.0
Drew DoberJason Gonzalez

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14701485150015151530← oldermost recent →
Drew Dober(10 fights)Jason Gonzalez(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +141.4|Blue -141.4
Recent Form
Red +0.2|Blue -0.2
Striker Score
Red -47.8|Blue +47.8
Grappler Score
Red -50.0|Blue +50.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Drew DoberTargetJason Gonzalez

By target zone

14
41% acc · 70%
Head
6
24% acc · 60%
2
67% acc · 10%
Body
1
100% acc · 10%
4
100% acc · 20%
Leg
3
75% acc · 30%

By position

15
52% acc · 75%
Distance
9
31% acc · 90%
4
40% acc · 20%
Clinch
1
100% acc · 10%
1
50% acc · 5%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Drew Dober rounds
0
even
0
Jason Gonzalez rounds
Round 1Drew Dober edged it
Sig. strikes20
Takedowns0
Control0:10
Knockdowns1
10Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
0Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

1
KD
0
20 / 41
Sig Strikes
10 / 30
48%
Sig Str %
33%
23 / 45
Total Strikes
10 / 30
0 / 1
TDs
0 / 0
0%
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:10
Ctrl Time
0:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Jason Gonzalez10 / 3010 / 300 / 00
1Drew Dober20 / 4123 / 450 / 10

Drew Dober

StanceSouthpaw
Height68.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights26

Jason Gonzalez

StanceSouthpaw
Height74.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights4