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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Drew Dober won · U-DEC R3

Elo1514

Elo1425

Drew DobervsFrank CamachoUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs. Brunson 2 · Saturday, January 27, 2018Charlotte, North Carolina, USA

Official fight result

Drew Dober won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupDrew Dober: Pressure fightervsFrank Camacho: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Frank Camacho wins(65.8%)

Actual result: Drew Dober wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Frank Camacho at +120 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Frank Camacho enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Drew Dober is a KO finisher (73% of wins). Frank Camacho has lost 60% of fights by KO.
Frank Camacho has 15pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Drew Dober (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Drew Dober

Red Corner

Frank Camacho

Blue Corner

-140

(58%)

Vegas Odds

+120

(45%)

1514

Elo

1425

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'8"

Height

5'10"

177.8 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Drew DoberW2 streak

oldest →

vs Renato Moicano · Feb 24

KOvs Jean Silva · Jul 24

KOvs Manuel Torres · Mar 25

KOvs Kyle Prepolec · Oct 25

KOvs Michael Johnson · Mar 26

latest

Frank CamachoL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Geoff Neal · Sep 18

KOvs Nick Hein · Jun 19

SUBvs Beneil Dariush · Oct 19

KOvs Justin Jaynes · Jun 20

KOvs Manuel Torres · May 22

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Drew DoberMetricFrank Camacho

4.48

Strikes / min

6.56

4.33

Strikes absorbed / min

7.44

53%

Strike defense

51%

0.61

TDs / 15 min

1.11

58%

Takedown defense

73%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.15Δ 1.03 — meaningful gap-0.88

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Drew DoberFrank Camacho

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Drew Dober(10 fights)Frank Camacho(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +89.1|Blue -89.1

Recent Form

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Striker Score

Red +2.1|Blue -2.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +112.0|Blue -112.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Drew DoberTargetFrank Camacho

By target zone

37% acc · 66%

Head

41% acc · 75%

76% acc · 23%

Body

90% acc · 25%

100% acc · 10%

Leg

By position

125

43% acc · 86%

Distance

47% acc · 93%

79% acc · 10%

Clinch

75% acc · 6%

50% acc · 3%

Ground

17% acc · 1%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Drew Dober rounds

even

Frank Camacho rounds

Round 1Drew Dober edged it

Sig. strikes30

Takedowns0

Control0:08

17Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

2:12Control

Round 2Drew Dober edged it

Sig. strikes67

Takedowns0

Control0:04

37Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:21Control

Round 3Frank Camacho edged it

Sig. strikes48

Takedowns0

Control0:14

52Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:31Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

145 / 322

Sig Strikes

106 / 223

44%

Sig Str %

45.7%

161 / 338

Total Strikes

148 / 269

0 / 6

TDs

3 / 3

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

0:26

Ctrl Time

3:04

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Frank Camacho	17 / 41	43 / 70	2 / 2
1	Drew Dober	30 / 70	37 / 77	0 / 1
2	Frank Camacho	37 / 79	38 / 81	0 / 0
2	Drew Dober	67 / 134	71 / 138	0 / 2
3	Frank Camacho	52 / 103	67 / 118	1 / 1
3	Drew Dober	48 / 118	53 / 123	0 / 3

Drew Dober

StanceSouthpaw

Height68.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights26

Frank Camacho

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights7