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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Brad Riddell won · U-DEC R3

Elo1514

Elo1441

Drew DobervsBrad RiddellUFC Prediction Result

UFC 263: Adesanya vs. Vettori 2 · Saturday, June 12, 2021Glendale, Arizona, USA

Official fight result

Brad Riddell won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupDrew Dober: Pressure fightervsBrad Riddell: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Brad Riddell wins(62.7%)

Actual result: Brad Riddell wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Brad Riddell at +120 American odds

+$120 profit

$220 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Brad Riddell enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Stance matchup historically favors Drew Dober (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Drew Dober

Red Corner

Brad Riddell

Blue Corner

-152

(60%)

Vegas Odds

+120

(45%)

1514

Elo

1441

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'8"

Height

5'7"

177.8 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Drew DoberW2 streak

oldest →

vs Renato Moicano · Feb 24

KOvs Jean Silva · Jul 24

KOvs Manuel Torres · Mar 25

KOvs Kyle Prepolec · Oct 25

KOvs Michael Johnson · Mar 26

latest

Brad RiddellL3 streak

oldest →

vs Magomed Mustafaev · Feb 20

vs Alex Da Silva · Sep 20

KOvs Rafael Fiziev · Dec 21

SUBvs Jalin Turner · Jul 22

SUBvs Renato Moicano · Nov 22

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Drew DoberMetricBrad Riddell

4.48

Strikes / min

4.71

4.33

Strikes absorbed / min

3.53

53%

Strike defense

53%

0.61

TDs / 15 min

1.77

58%

Takedown defense

63%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.15Δ 1.03 — meaningful gap+1.18

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Drew DoberBrad Riddell

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Drew Dober(10 fights)Brad Riddell(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +72.8|Blue -72.8

Recent Form

Red -1.0|Blue +1.0

Striker Score

Red +1.1|Blue -1.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red -161.0|Blue +161.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Drew DoberTargetBrad Riddell

By target zone

36% acc · 71%

Head

66% acc · 74%

90% acc · 25%

Body

54% acc · 17%

75% acc · 4%

Leg

89% acc · 9%

By position

42% acc · 92%

Distance

62% acc · 88%

100% acc · 3%

Clinch

100% acc · 6%

80% acc · 5%

Ground

86% acc · 7%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Drew Dober rounds

even

Brad Riddell rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes32

Takedowns0

Control0:16

28Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:53Control

Round 2Brad Riddell edged it

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns1

Control0:27

27Sig. strikes

3Takedowns

1:25Control

Round 3Brad Riddell edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns0

Control0:22

34Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:12Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

73 / 168

Sig Strikes

89 / 137

43%

Sig Str %

65%

78 / 173

Total Strikes

113 / 161

1 / 5

TDs

5 / 11

50%

TD %

44.3%

Sub Att

Rev

1:05

Ctrl Time

2:30

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Brad Riddell	28 / 48	28 / 48	1 / 4
1	Drew Dober	32 / 71	37 / 76	0 / 0
2	Brad Riddell	27 / 38	36 / 47	3 / 4
2	Drew Dober	21 / 52	21 / 52	1 / 1
3	Brad Riddell	34 / 51	49 / 66	1 / 3
3	Drew Dober	20 / 45	20 / 45	0 / 4

Drew Dober

StanceSouthpaw

Height68.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights26

Brad Riddell

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights7