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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Drakkar Klose won · U-DEC R3

Elo1513

Elo1533

Drakkar KlosevsRafa GarciaUFC Prediction Result

UFC 277: Pena vs. Nunes 2 · Saturday, July 30, 2022Dallas, Texas, USA

Official fight result

Drakkar Klose won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupDrakkar Klose: Pressure fightervsRafa Garcia: Wrestler

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Rafa Garcia wins(52.8%)

Actual result: Drakkar Klose wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Rafa Garcia at +170 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Rafa Garcia enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Rafa Garcia has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.

Tale of the Tape

Drakkar Klose

Red Corner

Rafa Garcia

Blue Corner

-200

(67%)

Vegas Odds

+170

(37%)

1513

Elo

1533

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

5'7"

177.8 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Drakkar Klose

oldest →

KOvs Brandon Jenkins · Apr 22

KOvs Joe Solecki · Dec 23

vs Joaquim Silva · May 24

KOvs Joel Alvarez · Dec 24

vs Edson Barboza · Aug 25

latest

Rafa GarciaW3 streak

oldest →

vs Clay Guida · Apr 23

KOvs Grant Dawson · Oct 24

vs Vinc Pichel · Mar 25

KOvs Jared Gordon · Sep 25

DECvs Alexander Hernandez · Apr 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Drakkar KloseMetricRafa Garcia

4.25

Strikes / min

4.28

3.65

Strikes absorbed / min

4.42

49%

Strike defense

61%

1.49

TDs / 15 min

3.22

69%

Takedown defense

77%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.60evenly matched on net striking-0.14

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Drakkar KloseRafa Garcia

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Drakkar Klose(10 fights)Rafa Garcia(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -19.3|Blue +19.3

Recent Form

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Striker Score

Red +1.4|Blue -1.4

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Drakkar KloseTargetRafa Garcia

By target zone

32% acc · 39%

Head

51% acc · 68%

93% acc · 44%

Body

100% acc · 24%

91% acc · 16%

Leg

75% acc · 9%

By position

39% acc · 52%

Distance

52% acc · 68%

96% acc · 39%

Clinch

85% acc · 32%

71% acc · 8%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Drakkar Klose rounds

even

Rafa Garcia rounds

Round 1Drakkar Klose edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns2

Control1:49

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:06Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns0

Control0:16

5Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

2:11Control

Round 3Drakkar Klose edged it

Sig. strikes28

Takedowns0

Control0:00

16Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:37Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

61 / 115

Sig Strikes

34 / 57

53.7%

Sig Str %

56.3%

111 / 175

Total Strikes

83 / 111

2 / 10

TDs

3 / 11

9.3%

TD %

22%

Sub Att

Rev

2:05

Ctrl Time

2:54

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Rafa Garcia	13 / 22	21 / 30	0 / 1
1	Drakkar Klose	19 / 30	33 / 53	2 / 7
2	Rafa Garcia	5 / 12	33 / 45	2 / 4
2	Drakkar Klose	14 / 29	35 / 51	0 / 2
3	Rafa Garcia	16 / 23	29 / 36	1 / 6
3	Drakkar Klose	28 / 56	43 / 71	0 / 1

Drakkar Klose

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights12

Rafa Garcia

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights11