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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Said Nurmagomedov won · U-DEC R3

Elo1484

Elo1493

Douglas Silva de AndradevsSaid NurmagomedovUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Fiziev · Saturday, July 9, 2022Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Said Nurmagomedov won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupDouglas Silva de Andrade: Well-roundedvsSaid Nurmagomedov: Submission grappler

Well-rounded fighters can dictate where this happens. The grappler needs scrambles to find their entries.

Model Prediction: Said Nurmagomedov wins(79.9%)

Actual result: Said Nurmagomedov wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Said Nurmagomedov at -475 American odds

+$21 profit

$121 total returned

Tale of the Tape

Douglas Silva de Andrade

Red Corner

Said Nurmagomedov

Blue Corner

+380

(21%)

Vegas Odds

-475

(83%)

1484

Elo

1493

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'7"

Height

5'8"

172.72 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Douglas Silva de AndradeL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Gaetano Pirrello · Oct 21

SUBvs Sergey Morozov · Feb 22

vs Cody Stamann · May 23

vs Miles Johns · Jun 24

KOvs Javier Reyes · Feb 26

latest

Said NurmagomedovL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Saidyokub Kakhramonov · Dec 22

vs Jonathan Martinez · Mar 23

SUBvs Muin Gafurov · Oct 23

vs Vinicius Oliveira · Feb 25

vs Bryce Mitchell · Jul 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Douglas Silva de AndradeMetricSaid Nurmagomedov

3.54

Strikes / min

3.08

4.09

Strikes absorbed / min

2.05

56%

Strike defense

55%

0.54

TDs / 15 min

0.86

71%

Takedown defense

63%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

1.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.55Δ 1.58 — meaningful gap+1.03

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Douglas Silva de AndradeSaid Nurmagomedov

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Douglas Silva de Andrade(10 fights)Said Nurmagomedov(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -9.2|Blue +9.2

Recent Form

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Striker Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red -21.0|Blue +21.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Douglas Silva de AndradeTargetSaid Nurmagomedov

By target zone

12% acc · 14%

Head

30% acc · 50%

58% acc · 39%

Body

67% acc · 29%

62% acc · 46%

Leg

90% acc · 21%

By position

36% acc · 86%

Distance

44% acc · 93%

67% acc · 7%

Clinch

38% acc · 7%

40% acc · 7%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Douglas Silva de Andrade rounds

even

Said Nurmagomedov rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns0

Control1:31

9Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:02Control

Round 2Said Nurmagomedov edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns0

Control0:20

21Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Even round

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns1

Control2:21

12Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:20Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

28 / 74

Sig Strikes

42 / 97

37%

Sig Str %

42.3%

44 / 95

Total Strikes

77 / 150

1 / 1

TDs

1 / 5

100%

TD %

16.7%

Sub Att

Rev

4:12

Ctrl Time

0:22

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Said Nurmagomedov	9 / 30	24 / 46	0 / 2
1	Douglas Silva de Andrade	8 / 22	10 / 28	0 / 0
2	Said Nurmagomedov	21 / 41	24 / 46	0 / 1
2	Douglas Silva de Andrade	13 / 32	14 / 33	0 / 0
3	Said Nurmagomedov	12 / 26	29 / 58	1 / 2
3	Douglas Silva de Andrade	7 / 20	20 / 34	1 / 1

Douglas Silva de Andrade

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights14

Said Nurmagomedov

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights11