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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Douglas Silva de Andrade won · U-DEC R3

Elo1484

Elo1378

Douglas Silva de AndradevsRenan BaraoUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs. Jacare · Saturday, November 16, 2019Sao Paulo, Sao Paulo, Brazil

Official fight result

Douglas Silva de Andrade won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupDouglas Silva de Andrade: Well-roundedvsRenan Barao: Well-rounded

Well-rounded vs well-rounded. Usually decided by who imposes their gameplan first.

Model Prediction: Douglas Silva de Andrade wins(55.9%)

Actual result: Douglas Silva de Andrade wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Douglas Silva de Andrade at -235 American odds

+$43 profit

$143 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Renan Barao enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Renan Barao has 20pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Douglas Silva de Andrade

Red Corner

Renan Barao

Blue Corner

-235

(70%)

Vegas Odds

+195

(34%)

1484

Elo

1378

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'7"

Height

5'6"

172.72 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Douglas Silva de AndradeL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Sergey Morozov · Feb 22

vs Said Nurmagomedov · Jul 22

vs Cody Stamann · May 23

vs Miles Johns · Jun 24

KOvs Javier Reyes · Feb 26

latest

Renan BaraoL4 streak

oldest →

vs Phillipe Nover · Sep 16

vs Aljamain Sterling · Jul 17

vs Brian Kelleher · Feb 18

vs Andre Ewell · Sep 18

KOvs Luke Sanders · Feb 19

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Douglas Silva de AndradeMetricRenan Barao

3.54

Strikes / min

3.78

4.09

Strikes absorbed / min

3.90

56%

Strike defense

57%

0.54

TDs / 15 min

1.49

71%

Takedown defense

91%

0.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.55evenly matched on net striking-0.12

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Douglas Silva de AndradeRenan Barao

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Douglas Silva de Andrade(10 fights)Renan Barao(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +106.2|Blue -106.2

Recent Form

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Striker Score

Red -1.1|Blue +1.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red +50.0|Blue -50.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Douglas Silva de AndradeTargetRenan Barao

By target zone

40% acc · 69%

Head

27% acc · 53%

56% acc · 20%

Body

56% acc · 24%

89% acc · 11%

Leg

72% acc · 22%

By position

44% acc · 92%

Distance

33% acc · 84%

100% acc · 5%

Clinch

88% acc · 12%

67% acc · 3%

Ground

67% acc · 3%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Douglas Silva de Andrade rounds

even

Renan Barao rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns0

Control0:28

17Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:03Control

Round 2Renan Barao edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns0

Control0:00

17Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:14Control

Round 3Douglas Silva de Andrade edged it

Sig. strikes39

Takedowns0

Control0:00

24Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:02Control

Fight Stats

Totals

74 / 163

Sig Strikes

58 / 158

43.7%

Sig Str %

36.3%

100 / 190

Total Strikes

140 / 241

0 / 0

TDs

2 / 9

—

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

0:28

Ctrl Time

3:19

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Renan Barao	17 / 43	42 / 68	1 / 1
1	Douglas Silva de Andrade	21 / 43	36 / 59	0 / 0
2	Renan Barao	17 / 46	74 / 103	1 / 2
2	Douglas Silva de Andrade	14 / 38	24 / 48	0 / 0
3	Renan Barao	24 / 69	24 / 70	0 / 6
3	Douglas Silva de Andrade	39 / 82	40 / 83	0 / 0

Douglas Silva de Andrade

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights14

Renan Barao

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights17