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Featherweight
3 Rounds
Javier Reyes won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1484
Elo1496
Javier Reyes

Douglas Silva de AndradevsJavier ReyesUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kavanagh · Saturday, February 28, 2026Mexico City, Distrito Federal, Mexico

Official fight result

Javier Reyes won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 4:59

Style matchupDouglas Silva de Andrade: Well-roundedvsJavier Reyes: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Javier Reyes wins(78.3%)

Actual result: Javier Reyes wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Javier Reyes at -230 American odds

+$43 profit

$143 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Douglas Silva de Andrade has 21pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Javier Reyes has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Douglas Silva de Andrade
Red Corner
VS
Javier Reyes
Blue Corner
+194
(34%)
Vegas Odds
-230
(70%)
1484
Elo
1496
41
Age
32
Orthodox
Stance
N/A
5'7"
Height
5'7"
172.72 cm
Reach
185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Douglas Silva de Andrade
oldest →
W
KOvs Gaetano Pirrello · Oct 21
W
SUBvs Sergey Morozov · Feb 22
L
vs Said Nurmagomedov · Jul 22
W
vs Cody Stamann · May 23
L
vs Miles Johns · Jun 24
latest
Javier Reyes
oldest →
L
SUBvs Kaan Ofli · Jun 26
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Douglas Silva de AndradeMetricJavier Reyes
3.54
Strikes / min
8.91
4.09
Strikes absorbed / min
2.53
56%
Strike defense
47%
0.54
TDs / 15 min
2.00
71%
Takedown defense
50%
0.20
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.55Δ 6.93 — meaningful gap+6.38

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1519 vs 1500Strikes3.5 vs 8.9Takedowns0.5 vs 2.0Sub Atts0.20 vs 0.00Form-0.4 vs 0.0
Douglas Silva de AndradeJavier Reyes

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14701488150515231540← oldermost recent →
Douglas Silva de Andrade(10 fights)Javier Reyes(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -11.8|Blue +11.8
Recent Form
Red -0.4|Blue +0.4
Striker Score
Red -48.9|Blue +48.9
Grappler Score
Red -49.8|Blue +49.8
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Douglas Silva de AndradeTargetJavier Reyes

By target zone

8
53% acc · 47%
Head
42
61% acc · 91%
2
50% acc · 12%
Body
4
80% acc · 9%
7
88% acc · 41%
Leg
0
0% acc

By position

17
65% acc · 100%
Distance
9
28% acc · 20%
0
0% acc
Clinch
0
0
Ground
37
86% acc · 80%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Douglas Silva de Andrade rounds
0
even
1
Javier Reyes rounds
Round 1Javier Reyes edged it
Sig. strikes17
Takedowns0
Control0:04
Knockdowns0
46Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
1:57Control
1Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
1
17 / 27
Sig Strikes
46 / 75
62%
Sig Str %
61%
19 / 29
Total Strikes
87 / 125
0 / 0
TDs
1 / 2
—
TD %
50%
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:04
Ctrl Time
1:57

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Javier Reyes46 / 7587 / 1251 / 20
1Douglas Silva de Andrade17 / 2719 / 290 / 00

Douglas Silva de Andrade

StanceOrthodox
Height67.0"
Reach68.0"
Fights14

Javier Reyes

Stance—
Height67.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights2