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Bantamweight
3 Rounds
Douglas Silva de Andrade won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1484
Elo1409

Douglas Silva de AndradevsGaetano PirrelloUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Walker · Saturday, October 2, 2021Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Douglas Silva de Andrade won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 2:04

Model Prediction: Douglas Silva de Andrade wins(59.5%)

Actual result: Douglas Silva de Andrade wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Douglas Silva de Andrade at -280 American odds

+$36 profit

$136 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Douglas Silva de Andrade has 14pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Douglas Silva de Andrade has 41pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Douglas Silva de Andrade
Red Corner
VS
Gaetano Pirrello
Blue Corner
-280
(74%)
Vegas Odds
+225
(31%)
1484
Elo
1409
41
Age
34
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'7"
Height
5'7"
172.72 cm
Reach
165.1 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Douglas Silva de AndradeL2 streak
oldest →
W
SUBvs Sergey Morozov · Feb 22
L
vs Said Nurmagomedov · Jul 22
W
vs Cody Stamann · May 23
L
vs Miles Johns · Jun 24
L
KOvs Javier Reyes · Feb 26
latest
Gaetano Pirrello
oldest →
L
SUBvs Ricky Simon · Jan 21
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Douglas Silva de AndradeMetricGaetano Pirrello
3.54
Strikes / min
0.99
4.09
Strikes absorbed / min
2.44
56%
Strike defense
42%
0.54
TDs / 15 min
0.00
71%
Takedown defense
30%
0.20
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.55evenly matched on net striking-1.45

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1502 vs 1486Strikes3.8 vs 1.0Takedowns0.7 vs 0.0Sub Atts0.00 vs 0.00Form-0.5 vs -1.0
Douglas Silva de AndradeGaetano Pirrello

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14701483149515081520← oldermost recent →
Douglas Silva de Andrade(10 fights)Gaetano Pirrello(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +75.5|Blue -75.5
Recent Form
Red +0.5|Blue -0.5
Striker Score
Red +1.7|Blue -1.7
Grappler Score
Red +0.2|Blue -0.2
Layoff
Red 0.0|Blue 0.0
EVEN
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Douglas Silva de AndradeTargetGaetano Pirrello

By target zone

6
67% acc · 60%
Head
0
2
50% acc · 20%
Body
2
67% acc · 40%
2
100% acc · 20%
Leg
3
100% acc · 60%

By position

6
55% acc · 60%
Distance
4
80% acc · 80%
1
100% acc · 10%
Clinch
1
100% acc · 20%
3
100% acc · 30%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Douglas Silva de Andrade rounds
0
even
0
Gaetano Pirrello rounds
Round 1Douglas Silva de Andrade edged it
Sig. strikes10
Takedowns0
Control0:20
Knockdowns1
5Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
0Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

1
KD
0
10 / 15
Sig Strikes
5 / 6
66%
Sig Str %
83%
12 / 17
Total Strikes
5 / 6
0 / 0
TDs
0 / 0
—
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:20
Ctrl Time
0:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Gaetano Pirrello5 / 65 / 60 / 00
1Douglas Silva de Andrade10 / 1512 / 170 / 00

Douglas Silva de Andrade

StanceOrthodox
Height67.0"
Reach68.0"
Fights14

Gaetano Pirrello

StanceOrthodox
Height67.0"
Reach65.0"
Fights2