Middleweight

3 Rounds

Donte Johnson won · SUB R2

Elo1535

Elo1467

Donte JohnsonvsSedriques DumasUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Garcia vs. Onama · Saturday, November 1, 2025Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Donte Johnson won

SUB · Round 2 · 1:25

Model Prediction: Donte Johnson wins(76.5%)

Actual result: Donte Johnson wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Donte Johnson at -350 American odds

+$29 profit

$129 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Sedriques Dumas enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Donte Johnson threatens submissions; Sedriques Dumas has lost 50% of fights by sub.
Donte Johnson has 42pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Donte Johnson (53.5%).
Sedriques Dumas has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Donte Johnson

Red Corner

Sedriques Dumas

Blue Corner

-350

(78%)

Vegas Odds

+280

(26%)

1535

Elo

1467

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'8"

Height

6'2"

187.96 cm

Reach

200.66 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Donte Johnson

oldest →

vs Cody Brundage · Mar 26

latest

Sedriques DumasL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Nursulton Ruziboev · Mar 24

vs Denis Tiuliulin · Aug 24

KOvs Michal Oleksiejczuk · Apr 25

vs Zach Reese · Sep 25

SUBvs Jackson McVey · Apr 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Donte JohnsonMetricSedriques Dumas

3.11

Strikes / min

1.97

2.00

Strikes absorbed / min

2.64

61%

Strike defense

53%

2.00

TDs / 15 min

1.30

75%

Takedown defense

33%

0.70

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.11Δ 1.78 — meaningful gap-0.67

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Donte JohnsonSedriques Dumas

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Donte Johnson(2 fights)Sedriques Dumas(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +67.5|Blue -67.5

Recent Form

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Striker Score

Red +49.7|Blue -49.7

Grappler Score

Red +49.7|Blue -49.7

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Donte JohnsonTargetSedriques Dumas

By target zone

53% acc · 90%

Head

0% acc

Body

80% acc · 80%

100% acc · 10%

Leg

100% acc · 20%

By position

30% acc · 30%

Distance

25% acc · 60%

86% acc · 60%

Clinch

100% acc · 40%

100% acc · 10%

Ground

0% acc

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Donte Johnson rounds

even

Sedriques Dumas rounds

Round 1Donte Johnson edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns2

Control1:53

3Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:03Control

Round 2Donte Johnson edged it

Sig. strikes1

Takedowns1

Control1:11

2Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

10 / 18

Sig Strikes

5 / 16

76%

Sig Str %

31.5%

18 / 27

Total Strikes

12 / 23

3 / 3

TDs

1 / 5

100%

TD %

16.5%

Sub Att

Rev

3:04

Ctrl Time

2:03

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Sedriques Dumas	3 / 10	10 / 17	1 / 3	0
1	Donte Johnson	9 / 17	11 / 19	2 / 2	0
2	Sedriques Dumas	2 / 6	2 / 6	0 / 2	0
2	Donte Johnson	1 / 1	7 / 8	1 / 1	1

Donte Johnson

StanceSouthpaw

Height68.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights2

Sedriques Dumas

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach79.0"

Fights9