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Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Valter Walker won · SUB R1
Elo1482
Don'Tale Mayes
Elo1576
Valter Walker

Don'Tale MayesvsValter WalkerUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Rodrigues · Saturday, February 15, 2025Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Valter Walker won

SUB · Round 1 · 1:17

Model Prediction: Valter Walker wins(83.5%)

Actual result: Valter Walker wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Valter Walker at -330 American odds

+$30 profit

$130 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Valter Walker enters on a 4-fight win streak.
  • Valter Walker threatens submissions; Don'Tale Mayes has lost 33% of fights by sub.
  • Don'Tale Mayes has 46pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Don'Tale Mayes
Red Corner
VS
Valter Walker
Blue Corner
+265
(27%)
Vegas Odds
-330
(77%)
1482
Elo
1576
34
Age
28
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'6"
Height
6'6"
205.74 cm
Reach
198.12 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Don'Tale MayesL2 streak
oldest →
W
KOvs Andrei Arlovski · Jun 23
L
vs Rodrigo Nascimento · Nov 23
W
vs Caio Machado · Apr 24
L
vs Shamil Gaziev · Aug 24
L
vs Thomas Petersen · May 25
latest
Valter WalkerW4 streak
oldest →
L
vs Lukasz Brzeski · Apr 24
W
SUBvs Junior Tafa · Aug 24
W
SUBvs Kennedy Nzechukwu · Jul 25
W
SUBvs Louie Sutherland · Oct 25
W
SUBvs Thomas Petersen · Jul 26
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Don'Tale MayesMetricValter Walker
3.22
Strikes / min
2.00
3.61
Strikes absorbed / min
2.85
46%
Strike defense
42%
0.59
TDs / 15 min
5.74
46%
Takedown defense
0%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
2.50
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.39evenly matched on net striking-0.85

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1501 vs 1499Strikes3.2 vs 2.0Takedowns0.6 vs 5.7Sub Atts0.00 vs 2.50Form-0.2 vs 0.2
Don'Tale MayesValter Walker

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14701500153015601590← oldermost recent →
Don'Tale Mayes(10 fights)Valter Walker(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -93.6|Blue +93.6
Recent Form
Red -0.4|Blue +0.4
Striker Score
Red +0.1|Blue -0.1
Grappler Score
Red -0.7|Blue +0.7
Layoff
Red +14.0|Blue -14.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Don'Tale MayesTargetValter Walker

By target zone

1
50% acc · 100%
Head
0
0% acc
0
Body
0
0
Leg
1
100% acc · 100%

By position

1
50% acc · 100%
Distance
1
33% acc · 100%
0
Clinch
0
0
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Don'Tale Mayes rounds
0
even
1
Valter Walker rounds
Round 1Valter Walker edged it
Sig. strikes1
Takedowns0
Control0:00
1Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:58Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
1 / 2
Sig Strikes
1 / 3
50%
Sig Str %
33%
3 / 4
Total Strikes
5 / 9
0 / 0
TDs
1 / 2
—
TD %
50%
0
Sub Att
1
0
Rev
0
0:00
Ctrl Time
0:58

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Valter Walker1 / 35 / 91 / 21
1Don'Tale Mayes1 / 23 / 40 / 00

Don'Tale Mayes

StanceOrthodox
Height78.0"
Reach81.0"
Fights10

Valter Walker

StanceOrthodox
Height78.0"
Reach78.0"
Fights6