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Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Don'Tale Mayes won · U-DEC

Elo1482

Elo1402

Don'Tale MayesvsRoque MartinezUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Felder vs. Dos Anjos · Saturday, November 14, 2020Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Don'Tale Mayes won

U-DEC

Model Prediction: Don'Tale Mayes wins(71.8%)

Actual result: Don'Tale Mayes wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Don'Tale Mayes at -265 American odds

+$38 profit

$138 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Don'Tale Mayes enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Roque Martinez has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Don'Tale Mayes has a 23cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Don'Tale Mayes

Red Corner

Roque Martinez

Blue Corner

-265

(73%)

Vegas Odds

+205

(33%)

1482

Elo

1402

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'6"

Height

5'10"

205.74 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Don'Tale MayesL3 streak

oldest →

vs Rodrigo Nascimento · Nov 23

vs Caio Machado · Apr 24

vs Shamil Gaziev · Aug 24

SUBvs Valter Walker · Feb 25

vs Thomas Petersen · May 25

latest

Roque MartinezL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Alexandr Romanov · Sep 20

vs Josh Parisian · Jun 21

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Don'Tale MayesMetricRoque Martinez

3.22

Strikes / min

3.28

3.61

Strikes absorbed / min

4.90

46%

Strike defense

56%

0.59

TDs / 15 min

0.38

46%

Takedown defense

53%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.39Δ 1.23 — meaningful gap-1.62

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Don'Tale MayesRoque Martinez

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Don'Tale Mayes(10 fights)Roque Martinez(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +80.0|Blue -80.0

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red +119.0|Blue -119.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Don'Tale MayesTargetRoque Martinez

By target zone

34% acc · 58%

Head

39% acc · 52%

69% acc · 34%

Body

84% acc · 28%

83% acc · 8%

Leg

75% acc · 21%

By position

43% acc · 92%

Distance

50% acc · 93%

83% acc · 8%

Clinch

100% acc · 7%

0% acc

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Don'Tale Mayes rounds

even

Roque Martinez rounds

Round 1Don'Tale Mayes edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns1

Control1:34

18Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:24Control

Round 2Don'Tale Mayes edged it

Sig. strikes24

Takedowns0

Control0:06

20Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:38Control

Round 3Roque Martinez edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns0

Control0:47

20Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:50Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

59 / 135

Sig Strikes

58 / 111

47.3%

Sig Str %

53%

80 / 158

Total Strikes

96 / 152

1 / 2

TDs

1 / 2

50%

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

2:27

Ctrl Time

2:52

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Roque Martinez	18 / 28	19 / 30	0 / 0
1	Don'Tale Mayes	16 / 52	31 / 69	1 / 1
2	Roque Martinez	20 / 42	21 / 43	0 / 1
2	Don'Tale Mayes	24 / 56	27 / 59	0 / 0
3	Roque Martinez	20 / 41	56 / 79	1 / 1
3	Don'Tale Mayes	19 / 27	22 / 30	0 / 1

Don'Tale Mayes

StanceOrthodox

Height78.0"

Reach81.0"

Fights10

Roque Martinez

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights3